RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2001–2007

Filippo Volandri

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.2% ±4.1 raw 56.7% · tour 63.4% · 416 points
Return points won 39.6% ±4.2 raw 41.1% · tour 36.6% · 375 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.30 ±0.18 better than 98% of ATP · raw +0.30
Shot selection −0.02 ±0.31 better than 50% of ATP · raw −0.03
Execution −1.02 ±0.90 better than 25% of ATP · raw −1.13

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,151 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Filippo Volandri goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 173 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 52% 47.7%±7.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 13% 42.2%±12.5 43.7%
BH down the line 12% 43.2%±12.9 46.4%
FH inside-out 11% 59.9%±12.9 51.8%
FH inside-in 6% 44.9%±14.7 54.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 105 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 61% 52.8%±9.0 46.6%
FH down the line 21% 47.5%±12.7 44.7%
FH through the middle 13% 39.1%±13.8 41.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 67 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 51% 36.3%±10.8 48.0%
BH through the middle 16% 41.2%±14.5 43.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 60 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 48% 53.7%±11.7 51.5%
FH crosscourt 28% 55.5%±13.4 52.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −3 How much less varied Filippo Volandri's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 49 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 27% 36% ▲ 64% / 73%
Body 34% 27% 58% / 63%
T 39% 36% 71% / 75%

203 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 50% 69% / 73%
Body 28% 32% 60% / 63%
T 17% 18% 68% / 72%

161 normal · 38 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide27% 60.1%±8.6 n=58 40% ▲
Body34% 52.5%±8.1 n=73 21% ▼
T39% 57.5%±7.7 n=83 39%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.38).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide54% 59.1%±6.9 n=108
Body29% 55.5%±8.8 n=57
T17% 55.8%±10.2 n=34

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.71).

Exploitability 0.82 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.5±9.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (187 repeats, 216 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 6 36% −0.6±13.2
1stAd courtT 36 29% +1.4±9.2
1stAd courtWide 63 30% +3.1±7.8
1stDeuce courtBody 14 32% −4.9±11.6
1stDeuce courtT 34 27% +2.3±9.2
1stDeuce courtWide 51 25% −2.3±7.9
2ndAd courtBody 16 56% +6.7±12.0
2ndAd courtT 14 47% −2.0±12.4
2ndAd courtWide 42 48% −0.4±9.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 31 60% +11.2±10.3
2ndDeuce courtT 37 55% +5.4±10.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 27 52% +3.5±10.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Filippo Volandri's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 9.4% · won 59% · −3.4±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 10.3% · won 55% · −7.5±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 9.0% · won 53% · −10.1±11.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 10.7% · won 50% · +3.2±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 11.5% · won 48% · +1.5±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 12.3% · won 45% · −1.8±10.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 13.6% · won 45% · −2.4±10.2 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 10.3% · won 44% · −3.1±11.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Filippo Volandri wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.9% · won 51% · +0.9±12.1 vs own baseline · +4.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (3/8), Andy Murray (5/10)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 51% · +0.8±11.6 vs own baseline · +3.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (6/14), Roger Federer (6/7)
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 50% · −0.2±12.9 vs own baseline · +1.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (3/7)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.0% · won 46% · −4.5±12.0 vs own baseline · −7.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (4/14)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.9% · won 45% · −5.6±12.1 vs own baseline · −8.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (2/6), Igor Andreev (4/8)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+0.9158
FH to their backhand · rally−1.0172
BH to their backhand · rally−1.2152

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−1.6136
FH to their backhand · rally+1.8166

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Charted matches