Queens Club · QF · Grass · 15 Jun 2007
Nicolas Mahut v Rafael Nadal
86–77 in points · Nicolas Mahut won
Why it went the way it did
Nicolas Mahut won 4.0 more points than Rafael Nadal relative to what the serve alone predicted. Rafael Nadal's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −1.2, backhand execution −0.9, slice execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nicolas Mahut | Rafael Nadal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +2.8 | +0.4 | +3.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +1.2 | −2.9 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −1.2 | −1.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | +3.8 | +4.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.9 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +1.0 | +3.4 | −0.7 | +3.6 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −1.5 | −1.2 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −1.6 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +2.0 | +2.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −1.2 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +5.4 | −1.0 | +3.9 | +0.3 | +1.7 | −2.1 | −0.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Nicolas Mahut | Rafael Nadal | Net, Nicolas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | −3.8 | +4.7 | |
| 2 | +3.0 | +3.6 | −0.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nicolas Mahut serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 65% | 16% 80% | 31% 70% |
| 2 | 51% 69% | 12% 83% | 37% 58% |
Set to set +0.76 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 47% | 17% 71% | 48% 60% |
| 2 | 38% 57% | 11% 75% | 51% 74% |
Set to set −1.45 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nicolas Mahut
7.1 points left on the table across 176 shots 4.03 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit FH inside-out ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Rafael Nadal
5.6 points left on the table across 191 shots 2.92 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts