ATP · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2007–2021
Nicolas Mahut
Archetype: Serve-and-volleyer · Net rusher (6)
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Value per 100 shots
Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,461 shots.
Shot expected value
The share of points Nicolas Mahut goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 139 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH slice crosscourt | 42% | 48.7%±9.3 | 42.5% |
| BH slice through the middle | 16% | 38.2%±12.3 | 35.1% |
| BH through the middle | 10% | 46.3%±14.1 | 43.7% |
| BH slice down the line | 9% | 38.8%±14.2 | 37.1% |
| BH down the line | 8% | 46.0%±14.7 | 46.4% |
| FH inside-out | 8% | 52.8%±14.7 | 51.8% |
| BH crosscourt | 7% | 41.7%±14.8 | 47.6% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 51% to the average player · 111 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 30% | 60.9%±11.0 | 51.5% |
| FH crosscourt | 23% | 59.0%±12.1 | 52.7% |
| FH through the middle | 15% | 55.1%±13.5 | 47.0% |
| BH slice through the middle | 14% | 49.9%±13.7 | 44.8% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 102 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 37% | 47.1%±10.8 | 46.6% |
| FH through the middle | 28% | 33.3%±11.1 | 41.5% |
| FH down the line | 21% | 36.5%±12.4 | 44.7% |
Return +1: drive to your forehand side
position worth 41% to the average player · 83 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 41% | 42.7%±11.1 | 45.3% |
| FH down the line | 29% | 29.9%±11.4 | 40.9% |
| FH through the middle | 24% | 47.2%±13.0 | 39.4% |
Serve under pressure
Pressure predictability index −5 How much less varied Nicolas Mahut's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 47 break-point first serves.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 57% ▲ | 80% / 73% |
| Body | 12% | 0% ▼ | 65% / 63% |
| T | 47% | 43% | 82% / 75% |
590 normal · 7 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 53% | 84% / 73% |
| Body | 5% | 13% | 66% / 63% |
| T | 45% | 35% ▼ | 78% / 72% |
511 normal · 40 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 42% | 74.2%±4.3 n=251 | 55% ▲ |
| Body | 11% | 72.1%±7.5 n=68 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 47% | 71.5%±4.2 n=278 | 45% ▼ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.73).
Optimal mix: +0.9 per 100 first serves.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 72.2%±4.2 n=274 | 63% ▲ |
| Body | 6% | 72.0%±9.4 n=32 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 44% | 71.1%±4.5 n=245 | 37% ▼ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.95).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.
Exploitability 0.70 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.4±4.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (420 repeats, 712 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 29 | 32% | −4.6±10.0 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 173 | 23% | −4.7±4.9 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 155 | 20% | −7.7±4.8 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 42 | 35% | −2.0±9.2 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 169 | 19% | −5.7±4.6 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 199 | 23% | −4.4±4.6 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 57 | 47% | −2.5±8.8 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 15 | 44% | −5.3±12.2 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 95 | 45% | −3.2±7.3 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 91 | 42% | −7.1±7.4 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 60 | 47% | −3.1±8.6 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 23 | 46% | −2.0±11.3 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Nicolas Mahut's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Wide serve (deuce court) → BH volley crosscourt used 2.7% · won 86% · +2.7±8.2 vs own baseline
- T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 80% · −3.0±8.7 vs own baseline
- Wide serve (ad court) → FH volley crosscourt used 3.1% · won 79% · −4.1±9.2 vs own baseline
Return
- vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice through the middle, mid used 5.6% · won 34% · +7.0±10.7 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 6.4% · won 33% · +5.1±10.3 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 4.9% · won 30% · +3.0±10.8 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 5.1% · won 16% · −11.3±8.8 vs own baseline
Rally, consecutive own shots
- BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 12.3% · won 54% · +2.0±11.4 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Nicolas Mahut wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 0.9% · won 52% · −3.5±13.0 vs own baseline · +2.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Gilles Simon (4/8)
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| BH slice to the middle · return | +2.3 | 155 |
| Wide 1st serve · ad court | +1.9 | 274 |
| BH slice to their backhand · rally | +1.6 | 160 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | +1.2 | 120 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +1.0 | 143 |
Most exposed to
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −4.4 | 150 |
| T 1st serve · deuce court | −3.4 | 259 |
| Wide 1st serve · ad court | −1.8 | 230 |
| FH to the middle · return | −1.8 | 201 |
| T 1st serve · ad court | −1.2 | 255 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Brandon Nakashima, Rinky Hijikata, Thiago Seyboth Wild, Jannik Sinner
Tactical fingerprint
Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.
| Backhand slice | 61% | |
| Chipped returns | 41% | |
| BH down the line | 32% | |
| FH down the line | 38% | |
| Serve & volley | 36% | |
| Point-ending shots | 31.5% | |
| Points at net | 18% | |
| 1st serve in | 65% | |
| Deep returns | 34% | |
| Drop shots / shot | 2.5% | |
| T serves · ad | 44% | |
| Through the middle | 27% | |
| Forehand share | 56% | |
| T serves · deuce | 47% | |
| Wide serves · ad | 50% | |
| Wide serves · deuce | 42% | |
| Run-around forehands | 15% | |
| Unforced errors / shot | 7.4% | |
| Avg rally length | 3.0 |
Plays most like
- Sergiy Stakhovsky 2010–2022 plan v
- Gilles Muller 2005–2017 plan v
- Tim Henman 1995–2006 plan v
- Fernando Gonzalez 2000–2010 plan v
- Mark Philippoussis 1995–2003 plan v
- Roger Federer 1998–2021 plan v
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 2024–2026 plan v
- Pierre Hugues Herbert 2014–2025 plan v
Closest from another era
- Mark Philippoussis 1995–2003
- Boris Becker 1985–1999
- Brad Gilbert 1987–1994
Charted matches
- Nicolas Mahut v Dennis Novak W ATP Cup RR · Hard · 5 Feb 2021
- Gilles Simon v Nicolas Mahut L Queens Club QF · Grass · 21 Jun 2019
- Stan Wawrinka v Nicolas Mahut W Queens Club R16 · Grass · 20 Jun 2019
- Marcel Granollers v Nicolas Mahut L Davis Cup World Group SF RR · Hard · 16 Sep 2018
- Nicolas Mahut v Rafael Nadal L Miami Masters R16 · Hard · 28 Mar 2017
- Roberto Bautista Agut v Nicolas Mahut s_Hertogenbosch R16 · Grass · 11 Jun 2015
- Nicolas Mahut v John Isner L Wimbledon R128 · Grass · 22 Jun 2010
- Nicolas Mahut v Andy Roddick L Queens Club F · Grass · 17 Jun 2007
- Nicolas Mahut v Rafael Nadal W Queens Club QF · Grass · 15 Jun 2007