Olympics · F · Hard · 17 Aug 2008
Dinara Safina v Elena Dementieva
102–104 in points · Elena Dementieva won
Why it went the way it did
Elena Dementieva won 2.4 more points than Dinara Safina relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dinara Safina's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −5.2, slice shot selection −2.9, touch execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Dinara Safina | Elena Dementieva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −5.2 | −5.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.8 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +1.6 | +1.2 | −0.8 | +0.2 | −5.8 | −6.4 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +1.3 | +4.0 | +6.1 | +1.5 | +1.9 | +2.4 | +5.8 |
| Backhand | +0.8 | +1.5 | +1.0 | +3.3 | +1.1 | +1.2 | +3.8 | +6.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.9 | +0.8 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −2.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.6 | −2.6 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +2.2 | −1.3 | −0.7 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +2.5 | −0.8 | +2.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Dinara Safina | Elena Dementieva | Net, Dinara | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.6 | −2.4 | +3.0 | |
| 2 | +0.2 | +2.4 | −2.2 | |
| 3 | −0.5 | +2.7 | −3.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Dinara Safina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 73% | 11% 50% | 28% 20% |
| 2 | 50% 48% | 13% 50% | 37% 71% |
| 3 | 45% 53% | 18% 33% | 36% 42% |
Set to set −1.63 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.30 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elena Dementieva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% 33% | 40% 25% | 30% 67% |
| 2 | 57% 50% | 36% 87% | 7% 33% |
| 3 | 69% 55% | 24% 43% | 7% 100% |
Set to set −2.60 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Dinara Safina
8.5 points left on the table across 433 shots 1.95 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×18; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
Elena Dementieva
8.4 points left on the table across 449 shots 1.86 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts