RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 15 charted matches · 2007–2011

Dinara Safina

Archetype: Forehand line-changer · Backhand line-changer

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 57.8% ±3.1 raw 54.2% · tour 56.3% · 1,159 points
Return points won 45.1% ±3.1 raw 42.9% · tour 43.7% · 1,068 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.32 ±0.09 better than 96% of WTA · raw +0.31
Shot selection −0.04 ±0.13 better than 42% of WTA · raw −0.06
Execution +0.16 ±0.57 better than 68% of WTA · raw +0.02
Tactical adaptability +0.05 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 15 matches
Adaptation speed +0.15 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 1.99 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 99% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 6,236 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Dinara Safina goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 461 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 55% 52.0%±5.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 24% 43.6%±7.2 43.3%
BH down the line 10% 47.5%±10.1 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 33.9%±12.6 34.4%
BH slice crosscourt 4% 34.4%±12.7 40.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 434 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 52% 47.9%±5.3 46.7%
FH down the line 27% 41.8%±7.0 44.9%
FH through the middle 18% 37.8%±8.1 41.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 330 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 24% 52.5%±8.2 52.7%
FH down the line 22% 47.8%±8.5 52.2%
BH crosscourt 20% 45.6%±8.8 50.9%
FH through the middle 15% 42.5%±9.6 45.8%
BH through the middle 12% 48.7%±10.8 46.2%
BH down the line 7% 38.1%±12.3 50.0%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 252 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 59% 45.6%±6.3 47.9%
BH through the middle 20% 48.7%±9.8 42.7%
BH down the line 13% 40.3%±11.1 46.7%
BH slice crosscourt 4% 35.8%±14.4 38.7%
BH slice through the middle 4% 39.0%±14.6 33.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +4 How much less varied Dinara Safina's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 138 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 34% 46% ▲ 68% / 66%
Body 15% 15% 59% / 57%
T 51% 38% ▼ 61% / 68%

573 normal · 26 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 56% ▲ 62% / 66%
Body 13% 12% 53% / 56%
T 41% 32% ▼ 69% / 64%

447 normal · 112 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide35% 55.6%±5.3 n=207 50% ▲
Body15% 52.9%±7.5 n=89 4% ▼
T51% 51.7%±4.5 n=303 46% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.61).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 54.1%±4.7 n=268 46% ▼
Body13% 52.1%±8.1 n=72 0% ▼
T39% 58.0%±5.1 n=219 54% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.41).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.54 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.2±5.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (439 repeats, 689 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 77 40% −3.5±7.8
1stAd courtT 126 36% +0.1±6.3
1stAd courtWide 148 34% ±0.0±5.9
1stDeuce courtBody 65 40% −2.8±8.3
1stDeuce courtT 92 32% −0.5±6.9
1stDeuce courtWide 185 42% +8.4±5.5
2ndAd courtBody 66 55% −0.3±8.4
2ndAd courtT 39 57% +2.2±9.8
2ndAd courtWide 59 52% −1.8±8.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 72 53% −1.2±8.1
2ndDeuce courtT 43 59% +2.6±9.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 93 48% −5.7±7.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Dinara Safina's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 65% · +3.8±10.0 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.5% · won 64% · +2.2±10.0 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 61% · −0.4±10.1 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 61% · −0.5±11.4 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 61% · −0.7±10.4 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 6.5% · won 56% · +8.7±9.5 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 7.3% · won 53% · +6.3±9.2 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, deep used 4.5% · won 53% · +5.7±10.7 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 4.3% · won 48% · +1.4±10.8 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 3.7% · won 48% · +1.3±11.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.4% · won 54% · +6.3±8.1 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 8.1% · won 52% · +5.0±6.9 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.2% · won 54% · +6.4±9.7 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 5.0% · won 52% · +4.9±8.4 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 54% · +6.3±10.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Dinara Safina wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 57% · +9.8±9.7 vs own baseline · +17.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Dominika Cibulkova (4/6), Elena Dementieva (9/14)
  2. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 58% · +11.2±12.0 vs own baseline · +25.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elena Dementieva (11/14)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 55% · +7.9±10.0 vs own baseline · +5.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Maria Sharapova (2/7), Elena Dementieva (8/14)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 52% · +5.3±9.4 vs own baseline · +5.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Ana Ivanovic (3/9), Elena Dementieva (13/23)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.2% · won 53% · +5.7±10.2 vs own baseline · +3.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elena Dementieva (7/11), Caroline Wozniacki (4/6)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.1% · won 51% · +4.3±10.6 vs own baseline · +10.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · return+2.5142
BH to their backhand · return+1.9164
FH to their forehand · rally+1.1553
FH to their forehand · serve +1+1.1141
FH to the middle · return+1.1221

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · return−1.9194
FH to their backhand · serve +1−1.8153
FH to the middle · rally−1.5181
BH to the middle · rally−1.3239
FH to their backhand · rally−0.5350

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Sara Sorribes Tormo, Paula Badosa, Daria Kasatkina, Caroline Wozniacki, Elina Avanesyan

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

T serves · deuce51%
Wide serves · ad48%
FH down the line33%
Avg rally length4.5
Deep returns36%
1st serve in64%
T serves · ad39%
Serve & volley0%
Unforced errors / shot10.2%
Drop shots / shot1.2%
Backhand slice8%
Chipped returns5%
Points at net5%
Point-ending shots21.0%
Run-around forehands3%
Forehand share51%
Wide serves · deuce35%
BH down the line16%
Through the middle22%

Plays most like

  1. Magdalena Frech 2021–2026 plan v
  2. Alexandra Eala 2021–2026 plan v
  3. Linda Fruhvirtova 2022–2025 plan v
  4. Magda Linette 2016–2026 plan v
  5. Heather Watson 2014–2024 plan v
  6. Vera Zvonareva 2003–2020 plan v
  7. Jaqueline Cristian 2021–2026 plan v
  8. Simona Halep 2013–2022 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Diana Shnaider 2022–2026
  2. Linda Klimovicova 2022–2026
  3. Yue Yuan 2023–2026

Charted matches