US Open · R16 · Hard · 6 Sep 2009
Flavia Pennetta v Vera Zvonareva
97–88 in points · Flavia Pennetta won
Why it went the way it did
Flavia Pennetta won 4.4 more points than Vera Zvonareva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Vera Zvonareva's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.5, touch shot selection −1.8, serve 1st execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Flavia Pennetta | Vera Zvonareva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −0.1 | −2.4 | −2.8 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −1.2 | −1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.1 | +4.2 | +4.5 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +2.9 | +3.0 |
| Forehand | +1.7 | +3.8 | +7.0 | +12.5 | +2.0 | +3.0 | +6.4 | +11.4 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +2.5 | +1.1 | +3.4 | +1.0 | +1.5 | −0.9 | +1.7 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.4 | +0.9 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −3.5 | +1.7 | −1.9 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.8 | −0.9 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +1.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −1.8 | −0.2 | −1.9 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −0.7 | −2.7 |
| All shots | +1.6 | +2.9 | +11.2 | +15.6 | +2.3 | −0.2 | +9.1 | +11.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Flavia Pennetta | Vera Zvonareva | Net, Flavia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.5 | +6.4 | −3.8 | |
| 2 | +6.7 | +6.9 | −0.2 | |
| 3 | +6.4 | −2.1 | +8.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Flavia Pennetta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% 56% | 39% 36% | 29% 25% |
| 2 | 45% 57% | 20% 50% | 35% 56% |
| 3 | 29% 100% | 29% 100% | 43% 67% |
Set to set +2.37 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.59 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Vera Zvonareva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% 0% | 26% 33% | 70% 63% |
| 2 | 6% 33% | 34% 50% | 60% 61% |
| 3 | 18% 25% | 32% 43% | 50% 36% |
Set to set −2.22 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.99 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Flavia Pennetta
11.5 points left on the table across 630 shots 1.83 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×25; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.07 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
Vera Zvonareva
11.3 points left on the table across 626 shots 1.81 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.73 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH down the line ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts