RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 14 charted matches · 2006–2015

Flavia Pennetta

Archetype: Ad-court slider · Avoids the wide serve

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 58.4% ±3.1 raw 55.7% · tour 56.3% · 1,093 points
Return points won 46.5% ±3.3 raw 44.1% · tour 43.7% · 1,046 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.04 ±0.19 better than 60% of WTA · raw +0.03
Shot selection +0.20 ±0.14 better than 66% of WTA · raw +0.19
Execution +0.85 ±0.45 better than 87% of WTA · raw +0.77
Tactical adaptability +0.10 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 14 matches
Adaptation speed +0.10 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.42 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 72% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 6,435 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Flavia Pennetta goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 456 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 48% 48.1%±5.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 27% 46.3%±6.8 43.3%
BH down the line 18% 47.4%±8.1 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 3% 33.0%±13.5 34.4%
BH slice crosscourt 2% 32.5%±13.8 40.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 413 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 51% 46.0%±5.4 46.7%
FH through the middle 23% 38.0%±7.5 41.3%
FH down the line 21% 44.3%±7.9 44.9%
FH slice through the middle 2% 19.5%±11.9 29.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 295 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 27% 59.0%±8.1 52.7%
FH through the middle 21% 44.1%±9.0 45.8%
BH crosscourt 19% 49.6%±9.5 50.9%
FH down the line 15% 60.7%±10.0 52.2%
BH through the middle 14% 44.7%±10.5 46.2%
BH down the line 4% 45.2%±14.7 50.0%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 251 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 47% 48.6%±7.0 47.9%
BH down the line 24% 44.7%±9.2 46.7%
BH through the middle 20% 45.1%±9.8 42.7%
BH slice through the middle 4% 28.0%±13.3 33.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Flavia Pennetta's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 122 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 54% ▲ 73% / 66%
Body 19% 18% 56% / 57%
T 40% 29% ▼ 65% / 68%

536 normal · 28 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 49% 64% / 66%
Body 20% 22% 53% / 56%
T 27% 29% 65% / 64%

432 normal · 94 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 58.8%±5.0 n=234 57% ▲
Body19% 52.2%±7.0 n=107 4% ▼
T40% 55.7%±5.1 n=223 39%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.35).
Optimal mix: +0.9 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 56.2%±4.7 n=274 67% ▲
Body21% 57.5%±6.9 n=108 5% ▼
T27% 51.4%±6.2 n=144 28%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.39).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.62 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.0±5.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (394 repeats, 668 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 67 47% +2.7±8.3
1stAd courtT 154 37% +1.2±5.8
1stAd courtWide 86 26% −8.3±6.7
1stDeuce courtBody 84 48% +5.4±7.7
1stDeuce courtT 93 32% +0.1±6.9
1stDeuce courtWide 151 40% +5.9±6.0
2ndAd courtBody 94 51% −3.8±7.4
2ndAd courtT 38 58% +3.1±9.8
2ndAd courtWide 65 53% −0.8±8.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 129 54% −0.8±6.5
2ndDeuce courtT 38 59% +2.5±9.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 44 50% −3.6±9.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Flavia Pennetta's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 60% · +1.6±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.7% · won 59% · −0.2±11.1 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 59% · −0.2±9.5 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 3.0% · won 58% · −0.5±10.9 vs own baseline
  5. Body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 3.5% · won 55% · −3.7±10.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs body serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 4.9% · won 62% · +14.0±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, deep used 5.1% · won 54% · +6.1±10.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 5.5% · won 51% · +2.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 5.8% · won 46% · −2.3±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.1% · won 46% · −2.6±10.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 54% · +5.8±10.6 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.7% · won 51% · +3.0±6.8 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 4.9% · won 52% · +3.6±8.1 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 51% · +2.5±7.8 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.2% · won 51% · +2.0±8.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Flavia Pennetta wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 55% · +7.0±10.5 vs own baseline · +6.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Vera Zvonareva (4/7), Amelie Mauresmo (4/6)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 56% · +8.2±11.8 vs own baseline · +9.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 52% · +3.7±7.6 vs own baseline · +4.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Garbine Muguruza (3/10), Amelie Mauresmo (8/23)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 53% · +4.5±10.7 vs own baseline · +3.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Amelie Mauresmo (7/16), Roberta Vinci (10/14)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 53% · +5.0±11.7 vs own baseline · +5.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.0% · won 51% · +2.5±8.4 vs own baseline · +3.7 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · serve +1+3.6132
FH to their backhand · rally+2.1299
BH to their backhand · return +1+2.0155
FH to the middle · rally+1.8248
FH to their forehand · serve +1+1.5150

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · return−4.2153
FH to their forehand · rally−3.2509
BH to the middle · return−2.7189
BH to their backhand · rally−2.7406
FH to their backhand · rally−2.2364

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Sara Sorribes Tormo, Paula Badosa, Daria Kasatkina, Caroline Wozniacki, Elina Avanesyan

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length4.9
Wide serves · ad52%
Points at net9%
T serves · deuce40%
Wide serves · deuce41%
Serve & volley0%
BH down the line20%
Chipped returns8%
Drop shots / shot1.3%
FH down the line28%
Through the middle27%
Deep returns31%
Backhand slice7%
Run-around forehands3%
Point-ending shots19.8%
Unforced errors / shot8.5%
Forehand share50%
T serves · ad27%
1st serve in56%

Plays most like

  1. Linda Klimovicova 2022–2026 plan v
  2. Magda Linette 2016–2026 plan v
  3. Elena Vesnina 2007–2016 plan v
  4. Anastasia Potapova 2017–2026 plan v
  5. Elina Svitolina 2013–2026 plan v
  6. Anhelina Kalinina 2019–2025 plan v
  7. Ana Bogdan 2019–2024 plan v
  8. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Arantxa Sanchez Vicario 1988–2001
  2. Chris Evert 1979–1989
  3. Tereza Valentova 2025–2026

Charted matches