US Open · SF · Hard · 13 Sep 2009
Juan Martin Del Potro v Rafael Nadal
100–75 in points · Juan Martin Del Potro won
Why it went the way it did
Juan Martin Del Potro won 13.2 more points than Rafael Nadal relative to what the serve alone predicted. Rafael Nadal's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.1, return shot selection −2.1, touch shot selection −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Juan Martin Del Potro | Rafael Nadal | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −0.3 | +1.3 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.8 | +5.7 | +6.2 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −0.1 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +2.1 | +1.6 | +4.6 | +1.0 | +3.3 | −0.3 | +4.0 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +1.1 | +0.5 | +1.9 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +1.4 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.3 | +0.5 | −2.0 | −0.5 | −5.1 | +0.7 | −5.0 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +1.4 | +8.3 | +10.7 | −0.3 | −4.9 | +2.7 | −2.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Juan Martin Del Potro | Rafael Nadal | Net, Juan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.9 | ±0.0 | +3.9 | |
| 2 | +3.3 | −0.7 | +4.0 | |
| 3 | +3.5 | −1.8 | +5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Juan Martin Del Potro serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 67% | – | 32% 60% |
| 2 | 43% 77% | 3% 100% | 53% 50% |
| 3 | 38% 89% | – | 63% 60% |
Set to set −2.49 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.52 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Rafael Nadal serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 38% | 26% 67% | 35% 58% |
| 2 | 30% 33% | 27% 75% | 43% 46% |
| 3 | 23% 33% | 19% 20% | 58% 67% |
Set to set +1.20 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Juan Martin Del Potro
7.8 points left on the table across 420 shots 1.86 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×8; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Rafael Nadal
13.1 points left on the table across 417 shots 3.14 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice crosscourt ×5; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.63 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.43 pts