RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 153 charted matches · 2007–2022

Juan Martin Del Potro

Archetype: Avoids the wide serve · Ad-court slider

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 68.7% ±2.1 raw 66.4% · tour 63.4% · 12,771 points
Return points won 39.8% ±2.4 raw 35.9% · tour 36.6% · 12,886 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.16 ±0.04 better than 90% of ATP · raw +0.16
Shot selection −0.40 ±0.07 better than 17% of ATP · raw −0.41
Execution +1.15 ±0.18 better than 97% of ATP · raw +1.04
Tactical adaptability +0.10 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 150 matches
Adaptation speed +0.13 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.24 ±0.35 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 9,108 shots · better than 47% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.10 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 98% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 66,744 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Juan Martin Del Potro goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 5,080 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 48.8%±1.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 18% 45.4%±2.7 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 44.5%±3.1 42.5%
BH down the line 9% 46.8%±3.8 46.4%
FH inside-out 7% 52.1%±4.3 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 37.8%±5.2 35.1%
FH inside-in 4% 56.7%±5.4 54.7%
FH through the middle 2% 36.8%±8.0 45.2%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 3,270 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 49.6%±2.3 48.0%
BH through the middle 17% 41.8%±3.4 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 16% 39.7%±3.5 42.1%
BH down the line 9% 47.7%±4.6 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 33.7%±5.6 35.1%
FH inside-out 5% 53.5%±6.0 52.6%
FH inside-in 4% 55.8%±6.8 54.3%
FH through the middle 1% 47.8%±10.9 46.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 3,005 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 57.3%±2.9 52.7%
FH down the line 24% 54.6%±3.0 51.5%
FH through the middle 16% 47.9%±3.7 47.0%
BH crosscourt 12% 47.3%±4.3 49.1%
BH through the middle 12% 45.6%±4.3 46.8%
BH down the line 4% 47.8%±6.7 48.3%
BH slice crosscourt 2% 53.3%±9.7 47.0%
BH slice through the middle 1% 45.5%±10.9 44.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 2,830 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 47.7%±2.2 46.6%
FH through the middle 21% 40.2%±3.3 41.5%
FH down the line 20% 50.5%±3.4 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 4% 25.5%±6.5 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 26.6%±8.3 30.9%
FH slice down the line 1% 17.6%±8.7 25.6%
FH down the line + approach 1% 64.7%±12.4 69.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Juan Martin Del Potro's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 863 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 34% 73% / 73%
Body 12% 9% 65% / 63%
T 53% 57% 76% / 75%

6,445 normal · 192 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 53% 78% / 73%
Body 10% 12% 64% / 63%
T 44% 34% ▼ 75% / 72%

5,383 normal · 671 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide35% 67.2%±1.6 n=2,307 48% ▲
Body12% 61.5%±2.8 n=782 0% ▼
T53% 65.8%±1.3 n=3,548 52% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.007): serve wide more. Gap 1.5 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 68.2%±1.4 n=2,858 60% ▲
Body10% 61.3%±3.2 n=606 0% ▼
T43% 67.2%±1.5 n=2,590 40% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.002): serve wide more. Gap 1.1 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.81 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.5±1.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (5,666 repeats, 6,721 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 410 37% +0.1±3.8
1stAd courtT 1,327 28% +0.2±2.0
1stAd courtWide 1,997 28% +0.7±1.6
1stDeuce courtBody 573 39% +2.6±3.3
1stDeuce courtT 1,893 24% −1.2±1.6
1stDeuce courtWide 1,798 28% +0.8±1.7
2ndAd courtBody 845 46% −3.0±2.8
2ndAd courtT 334 52% +2.3±4.3
2ndAd courtWide 1,179 46% −2.0±2.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 1,083 51% +2.4±2.5
2ndDeuce courtT 946 52% +1.9±2.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 414 42% −5.6±3.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Juan Martin Del Potro's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 66% · −3.1±4.0 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 62% · −6.9±4.4 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.5% · won 62% · −7.1±4.4 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 61% · −7.8±4.4 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.6% · won 61% · −8.4±4.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.7% · won 53% · +14.4±4.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.3% · won 52% · +12.8±4.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 3.0% · won 48% · +9.6±4.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.6% · won 46% · +7.3±3.5 vs own baseline
  5. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.5% · won 47% · +8.1±4.8 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 58% · +10.2±4.7 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 1.6% · won 57% · +8.6±4.8 vs own baseline
  3. FH inside-out → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 57% · +8.9±5.6 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.9% · won 55% · +6.8±4.4 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.9% · won 52% · +4.2±3.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Juan Martin Del Potro wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.4% · won 62% · +12.7±6.2 vs own baseline · +10.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (6/19), Andy Roddick (7/14)
  2. FH down the line → BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 67% · +17.5±8.1 vs own baseline · +10.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (5/7), Novak Djokovic (6/7)
  3. T serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 61% · +11.0±6.4 vs own baseline · +8.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (5/14), Karen Khachanov (3/7)
  4. FH inside-out → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 63% · +13.3±7.4 vs own baseline · +12.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (11/15), Roger Federer (8/10)
  5. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 58% · +8.1±5.3 vs own baseline · +4.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (11/26), Roger Federer (13/29)
  6. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 60% · +10.4±7.0 vs own baseline · +3.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH volley to their forehand · rally+5.6145
BH volley to their backhand · rally+3.5129
BH slice to the middle · return+2.8725
FH volley to their forehand · rally+2.7151
FH to their forehand · return+2.5941

Most exposed to

BH to their forehand · return−2.5804
Smash to their forehand · rally−2.0178
Smash to their backhand · rally−1.7193
BH to the middle · serve +1−1.7726
FH to their backhand · return−1.4955

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Ugo Humbert, Karen Khachanov, Andy Murray, Joao Fonseca, Yoshihito Nishioka

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · deuce53%
Run-around forehands26%
1st serve in64%
T serves · ad43%
Avg rally length4.3
Backhand slice27%
Deep returns29%
Forehand share54%
Chipped returns15%
FH down the line29%
Wide serves · ad47%
Serve & volley1%
Drop shots / shot1.0%
BH down the line17%
Point-ending shots20.8%
Unforced errors / shot8.4%
Through the middle22%
Points at net7%
Wide serves · deuce35%

Plays most like

  1. Borna Coric 2015–2025 plan v
  2. Philipp Kohlschreiber 2008–2019 plan v
  3. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v
  4. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v
  5. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014 plan v
  6. Nicolas Almagro 2006–2019 plan v
  7. David Goffin 2013–2025 plan v
  8. Miomir Kecmanovic 2019–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Jim Courier 1989–1999
  2. Michael Chang 1989–1998
  3. Andre Agassi 1988–2006

Charted matches