Beijing · R32 · Hard · 8 Oct 2009
Marat Safin v Fernando Gonzalez
64–49 in points · Marat Safin won
Why it went the way it did
Marat Safin won 8.7 more points than Fernando Gonzalez relative to what the serve alone predicted. Fernando Gonzalez's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.7, touch shot selection −1.1, touch execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marat Safin | Fernando Gonzalez | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.2 | +2.3 | +2.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −1.1 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +0.9 | −2.3 | −1.8 | +0.5 | +0.8 | −0.7 | +0.6 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +2.3 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.2 | +1.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −2.7 | +1.4 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.4 | −0.6 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.9 | −2.0 |
| All shots | +0.8 | +0.4 | +3.6 | +4.8 | +0.8 | −3.3 | −1.5 | −4.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Marat Safin | Fernando Gonzalez | Net, Marat | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.1 | −3.0 | +2.9 | |
| 2 | +4.9 | −1.0 | +5.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marat Safin serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 76% | 3% 0% | 40% 75% |
| 2 | 39% 100% | 4% 0% | 57% 85% |
Set to set −1.44 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Fernando Gonzalez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 70% | 9% 100% | 48% 55% |
| 2 | 44% 75% | 19% 60% | 37% 50% |
Within sets +0.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marat Safin
4.1 points left on the table across 190 shots 2.18 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
Fernando Gonzalez
4.3 points left on the table across 190 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts