Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 17 Jan 2011
Novak Djokovic v Marcel Granollers
83–46 in points · Novak Djokovic won
Why it went the way it did
Novak Djokovic won 14.3 more points than Marcel Granollers relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marcel Granollers's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −2.2, backhand execution −2.0, touch execution −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Novak Djokovic | Marcel Granollers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.8 | +3.1 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.8 | +4.4 | +5.9 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −0.1 | +1.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +3.8 | +4.4 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −1.8 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −0.9 | +0.4 | −0.4 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.6 | +1.3 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −1.2 |
| All shots | −0.5 | +0.8 | +13.2 | +13.6 | +1.1 | +1.0 | −2.8 | −0.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Novak Djokovic | Marcel Granollers | Net, Novak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | −1.8 | +3.0 | |
| 2 | +6.9 | +1.1 | +5.9 | |
| 3 | +5.5 | ±0.0 | +5.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Novak Djokovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% 50% | – | 82% 78% |
| 2 | 76% 63% | 5% 100% | 19% 75% |
| 3 | 38% 50% | 5% 100% | 57% 92% |
Set to set +0.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.86 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Marcel Granollers serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 67% | 27% 0% | 18% 50% |
| 2 | 48% 38% | 15% 50% | 37% 50% |
| 3 | 65% 45% | 12% 50% | 24% 50% |
Set to set −1.42 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Novak Djokovic
5.7 points left on the table across 224 shots 2.54 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit BH smash through the middle ×1; BH smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Marcel Granollers
4.1 points left on the table across 223 shots 1.83 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts