RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 553 charted matches · 2005–2026

Novak Djokovic

Archetype: Grinder · Ad-court T server

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 69.0% ±2.0 raw 66.9% · tour 63.4% · 45,895 points
Return points won 43.2% ±2.3 raw 40.4% · tour 36.6% · 47,630 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.04 ±0.02 better than 70% of ATP · raw +0.04
Shot selection +0.04 ±0.03 better than 58% of ATP · raw +0.04
Execution +1.17 ±0.10 better than 97% of ATP · raw +1.08
Tactical adaptability +0.13 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 544 matches
Adaptation speed +0.08 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.40 ±0.18 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 43,122 shots · better than 24% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.24 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 89% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 262,428 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Novak Djokovic goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 17,919 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 53.0%±1.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 48.6%±1.3 43.7%
BH down the line 18% 50.6%±1.5 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 49.5%±2.6 42.5%
FH inside-out 3% 53.6%±3.5 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 3% 38.6%±3.5 35.1%
FH inside-in 2% 60.1%±3.8 54.7%
BH drop shot down the line 2% 45.5%±4.6 47.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 13,961 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 23% 57.6%±1.4 52.7%
FH down the line 22% 55.5%±1.5 51.5%
FH through the middle 14% 50.1%±1.8 47.0%
BH through the middle 13% 52.2%±1.9 46.8%
BH crosscourt 11% 54.0%±2.0 49.1%
BH down the line 8% 50.7%±2.5 48.3%
BH slice crosscourt 2% 53.3%±4.6 47.0%
FH down the line + approach 2% 74.8%±4.4 70.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 13,409 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 51.8%±1.1 46.6%
FH down the line 25% 52.8%±1.4 44.7%
FH through the middle 24% 46.1%±1.5 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 3% 26.8%±3.5 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 30.3%±5.0 30.9%
FH down the line + approach 1% 68.4%±5.3 69.3%
FH slice down the line 1% 29.1%±6.0 25.6%
BH through the middle 0% 42.4%±10.7 43.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 13,205 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 52.4%±1.1 48.0%
BH through the middle 21% 48.7%±1.6 43.8%
BH down the line 15% 51.0%±1.9 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 46.9%±2.8 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 4% 38.9%±3.5 35.1%
BH drop shot down the line 2% 49.0%±4.5 47.8%
FH inside-out 2% 58.3%±4.6 52.6%
FH inside-in 2% 59.4%±5.3 54.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Novak Djokovic's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 3120 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 46% 74% / 73%
Body 9% 7% 67% / 63%
T 45% 48% 76% / 75%

23,196 normal · 728 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 51% 48% 74% / 73%
Body 9% 9% 63% / 63%
T 40% 43% 73% / 72%

19,308 normal · 2,392 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 68.1%±0.7 n=11,027 59% ▲
Body9% 64.9%±1.7 n=2,178 0% ▼
T45% 67.5%±0.7 n=10,719 41% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.007): serve wide more. Gap 0.6 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide51% 66.1%±0.7 n=11,043 47% ▼
Body9% 62.8%±1.8 n=1,946 0% ▼
T40% 66.9%±0.8 n=8,711 53% ▲

Off equilibrium (p = 0.001): serve T more. Gap 0.8 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.48 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.5±0.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (22,692 repeats, 21,828 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 1,724 43% +6.3±1.9
1stAd courtT 6,181 31% +3.4±1.0
1stAd courtWide 6,081 31% +3.4±1.0
1stDeuce courtBody 2,160 42% +5.7±1.7
1stDeuce courtT 5,955 29% +3.7±1.0
1stDeuce courtWide 7,498 31% +4.1±0.9
2ndAd courtBody 3,294 55% +5.9±1.4
2ndAd courtT 1,475 55% +5.6±2.1
2ndAd courtWide 3,958 54% +5.4±1.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 4,389 54% +4.8±1.2
2ndDeuce courtT 3,036 54% +4.4±1.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 1,614 53% +4.7±2.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Novak Djokovic's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 64% · −5.4±2.3 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 64% · −5.4±2.2 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 61% · −8.2±2.5 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 2.3% · won 56% · −12.8±2.5 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 2.4% · won 56% · −13.0±2.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.1% · won 54% · +12.2±1.9 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.5% · won 56% · +13.5±2.5 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.1% · won 56% · +13.6±2.7 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.4% · won 51% · +8.3±2.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.9% · won 51% · +8.9±2.3 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH down the line used 1.0% · won 62% · +9.5±2.8 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 59% · +6.8±2.2 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 56% · +3.9±1.8 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 56% · +4.0±2.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 55% · +2.6±1.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Novak Djokovic wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line + approach → BH lob through the middle → Smash crosscourt used 0.1% · won 83% · +29.5±6.2 vs own baseline · +2.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Lorenzo Musetti (6/6), Andy Murray (9/9)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH slice through the middle → FH down the line + approach used 0.1% · won 75% · +22.2±5.7 vs own baseline · +5.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (5/6), Lorenzo Musetti (6/7)
  3. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line + approach used 0.1% · won 79% · +25.5±6.3 vs own baseline · +10.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (7/7)
  4. T serve → BH slice through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.1% · won 71% · +18.2±5.6 vs own baseline · +12.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Stan Wawrinka (5/7), Juan Martin Del Potro (7/10)
  5. FH down the line + approach → BH lob through the middle → Smash down the line used 0.1% · won 78% · +24.5±6.7 vs own baseline · +0.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Juan Martin Del Potro (5/6), Andy Murray (9/11)
  6. FH down the line → BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 65% · +11.8±4.2 vs own baseline · +2.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH volley to their forehand · serve +1+6.2180
BH volley to the middle · rally+5.2338
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1+4.7196
FH slice to their forehand · return +1+3.1153
FH slice to the middle · rally+3.1992

Most exposed to

Smash to the middle · rally−6.3287
FH volley to their backhand · serve +1−3.8268
BH volley to the middle · serve +1−3.4147
FH slice to their forehand · return−3.0250
BH drop shot to their backhand · rally−2.8243

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Rafael Nadal +1.88, Miomir Kecmanovic +1.72, Pedro Martinez +1.49, Casper Ruud +1.48, Nishesh Basavareddy +1.48

Favourable matchups

Miomir Kecmanovic +2.42, Pedro Martinez +2.36, Fabian Marozsan +2.33, Roberto Carballes Baena +2.23, Alexander Shevchenko +2.21

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Avg rally length4.7
1st serve in65%
BH down the line23%
Wide serves · deuce46%
FH down the line32%
Drop shots / shot1.9%
Deep returns30%
T serves · ad40%
Wide serves · ad51%
T serves · deuce45%
Through the middle24%
Points at net10%
Forehand share52%
Serve & volley2%
Chipped returns11%
Run-around forehands14%
Backhand slice13%
Point-ending shots20.3%
Unforced errors / shot7.6%

Plays most like

  1. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026 plan v
  2. Learner Tien 2022–2026 plan v
  3. Denis Istomin 2006–2021 plan v
  4. Mikhail Kukushkin 2014–2022 plan v
  5. Alexander Zverev 2014–2026 plan v
  6. Pablo Andujar 2013–2023 plan v
  7. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v
  8. Daniil Medvedev 2017–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Magnus Norman 2000–2001
  2. Andre Agassi 1988–2006
  3. Jiri Novak 1996–2004

Charted matches