Bastad · F · Clay · 17 Jul 2011
David Ferrer v Robin Soderling
39–61 in points · Robin Soderling won
Why it went the way it did
Robin Soderling won 13.2 more points than David Ferrer relative to what the serve alone predicted. David Ferrer's biggest leaks: forehand execution −1.5, serve 1st execution −0.9, slice shot selection −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | David Ferrer | Robin Soderling | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −1.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +5.1 | +5.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.5 | −1.5 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +2.2 | +2.9 | +5.5 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +3.3 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.8 | +2.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.2 | −0.5 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +2.1 | +2.7 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +1.9 | +11.2 | +13.5 |
Set by set
| Set | David Ferrer | Robin Soderling | Net, David | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.3 | +4.4 | −5.6 | |
| 2 | +1.6 | +9.2 | −7.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
David Ferrer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 50% | 5% 100% | 50% 45% |
| 2 | 22% 38% | 16% 17% | 62% 52% |
Within sets −0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Robin Soderling serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 63% | 5% 100% | 57% 83% |
| 2 | 45% 78% | 5% 0% | 50% 60% |
Within sets +0.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
David Ferrer
4.2 points left on the table across 207 shots 2.01 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Robin Soderling
5.9 points left on the table across 234 shots 2.51 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts