RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 24 charted matches · 2004–2011

Robin Soderling

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 69.6% ±2.6 raw 65.1% · tour 63.4% · 2,037 points
Return points won 37.2% ±2.9 raw 32.2% · tour 36.6% · 1,951 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.04 ±0.10 better than 45% of ATP · raw −0.05
Shot selection +0.37 ±0.15 better than 84% of ATP · raw +0.34
Execution −0.27 ±0.51 better than 54% of ATP · raw −0.60
Tactical adaptability −0.06 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 24 matches
Adaptation speed +0.01 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.34 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 80% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 9,827 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Robin Soderling goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 523 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 49.2%±5.3 47.6%
BH down the line 23% 43.8%±6.9 46.4%
BH through the middle 21% 38.0%±7.0 43.7%
FH inside-in 4% 57.3%±12.9 54.7%
FH inside-out 4% 52.2%±13.2 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 2% 42.2%±14.4 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 2% 33.4%±14.2 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 455 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 29% 56.6%±6.6 52.7%
FH down the line 28% 43.4%±6.7 51.5%
FH through the middle 20% 37.6%±7.6 47.0%
BH through the middle 8% 51.5%±10.9 46.8%
BH crosscourt 7% 48.7%±11.3 49.1%
BH down the line 6% 55.5%±11.8 48.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 419 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 37% 49.0%±6.2 46.6%
FH down the line 33% 40.5%±6.4 44.7%
FH through the middle 30% 43.1%±6.7 41.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 331 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 51.3%±6.7 46.9%
BH through the middle 24% 39.6%±8.0 43.0%
BH down the line 24% 42.7%±8.2 44.2%
FH inside-out 4% 51.0%±14.1 51.7%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 50.6%±15.0 40.9%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Robin Soderling's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 126 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 24% ▼ 72% / 73%
Body 9% 17% ▲ 66% / 63%
T 45% 59% ▲ 79% / 75%

1,035 normal · 29 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 45% 80% / 73%
Body 7% 7% 68% / 63%
T 44% 47% 66% / 72%

861 normal · 97 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 66.6%±3.4 n=488 42% ▼
Body9% 59.4%±7.2 n=95 0% ▼
T45% 70.1%±3.3 n=481 58% ▲

Off equilibrium (p = 0.024): serve T more. Gap 2.5 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 64.5%±3.5 n=464 62% ▲
Body7% 60.0%±8.0 n=71 0% ▼
T44% 60.7%±3.8 n=423 38% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.37).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.60 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.9±3.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (676 repeats, 1,298 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 48 35% −2.3±8.9
1stAd courtT 227 24% −4.1±4.4
1stAd courtWide 324 22% −5.4±3.6
1stDeuce courtBody 52 33% −3.8±8.5
1stDeuce courtT 295 24% −0.6±3.9
1stDeuce courtWide 296 23% −3.8±3.9
2ndAd courtBody 123 54% +4.7±6.6
2ndAd courtT 53 38% −11.0±8.8
2ndAd courtWide 143 47% −1.8±6.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 122 53% +4.1±6.7
2ndDeuce courtT 158 50% +0.8±6.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 90 40% −7.7±7.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Robin Soderling's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 68% · −0.1±9.2 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 4.5% · won 67% · −1.7±7.3 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.3% · won 65% · −3.1±8.3 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 64% · −4.6±9.0 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 61% · −7.7±9.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH down the line, mid used 3.4% · won 54% · +16.6±9.5 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.8% · won 46% · +8.7±8.5 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.0% · won 45% · +7.7±8.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs body serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.4% · won 47% · +9.9±10.6 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.7% · won 45% · +8.5±10.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH down the line → FH down the line used 2.1% · won 57% · +10.0±9.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.1% · won 53% · +5.8±7.1 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 54% · +6.5±9.0 vs own baseline
  4. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 4.8% · won 52% · +4.8±7.3 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 2.8% · won 53% · +5.8±9.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Robin Soderling wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH slice through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 64% · +15.6±11.5 vs own baseline · +18.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Michael Llodra (4/6), Roger Federer (11/12)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 60% · +11.8±10.9 vs own baseline · +15.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (7/10)
  3. BH down the line → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 56% · +7.3±9.1 vs own baseline · +11.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alexandr Dolgopolov (4/8), Roger Federer (8/16)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → BH down the line used 0.4% · won 59% · +10.9±12.2 vs own baseline · +22.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/6)
  5. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.6% · won 56% · +7.9±10.8 vs own baseline · +7.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (9/13)
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 53% · +4.7±9.0 vs own baseline · +6.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · return+2.6184
FH to the middle · return+1.9276
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+1.8488
Body 2nd serve · deuce court+1.5149
BH to their forehand · serve +1+1.5131

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · serve +1−3.6229
BH to their forehand · rally−3.1224
T 1st serve · deuce court−2.6474
Wide 1st serve · ad court−2.4507
BH slice to the middle · rally−2.1153

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Luciano Darderi, Brandon Nakashima, Milos Raonic, Francisco Cerundolo, Rinky Hijikata

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

BH down the line29%
FH down the line37%
Forehand share59%
Unforced errors / shot12.0%
T serves · ad44%
Point-ending shots26.4%
Deep returns30%
Wide serves · deuce46%
Run-around forehands21%
1st serve in62%
T serves · deuce45%
Avg rally length3.9
Wide serves · ad48%
Points at net10%
Serve & volley0%
Through the middle21%
Backhand slice10%
Chipped returns6%
Drop shots / shot0.3%

Plays most like

  1. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  2. Hubert Hurkacz 2018–2026 plan v
  3. Andrey Rublev 2015–2026 plan v
  4. Tomas Berdych 2005–2019 plan v
  5. Laslo Djere 2018–2026 plan v
  6. Thanasi Kokkinakis 2013–2024 plan v
  7. Joao Fonseca 2024–2026 plan v
  8. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Joao Fonseca 2024–2026
  2. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026
  3. Ugo Humbert 2019–2026

Charted matches