Canada Masters · SF · Hard · 13 Aug 2011
Mardy Fish v Janko Tipsarevic
57–46 in points · Mardy Fish won
Why it went the way it did
Mardy Fish won 4.5 more points than Janko Tipsarevic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Janko Tipsarevic's biggest leaks: return execution −1.7, serve 1st execution −1.1, slice shot selection −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mardy Fish | Janko Tipsarevic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +1.9 | −2.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.6 | −1.4 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | −1.7 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.2 | +0.2 | +1.2 | −0.6 | +1.4 | +0.9 | +1.7 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +1.5 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +0.2 | −0.4 | +1.1 | +0.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.6 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −1.5 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −1.2 |
| All shots | −0.6 | +5.2 | −3.5 | +1.0 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −2.2 | −3.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Mardy Fish | Janko Tipsarevic | Net, Mardy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.7 | −0.2 | +1.9 | |
| 2 | −0.7 | −3.3 | +2.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mardy Fish serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 58% | 9% 67% | 53% 76% |
| 2 | 57% 62% | – | 43% 80% |
Set to set −2.81 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Janko Tipsarevic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 56% | 5% 100% | 52% 64% |
| 2 | 41% 73% | 19% 60% | 41% 45% |
Within sets +0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mardy Fish
5.6 points left on the table across 174 shots 3.23 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×2; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Janko Tipsarevic
5.3 points left on the table across 177 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts