RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 30 charted matches · 2007–2019

Janko Tipsarevic

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.5% ±2.7 raw 62.8% · tour 63.4% · 2,604 points
Return points won 36.3% ±2.7 raw 34.0% · tour 36.6% · 2,439 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.16 ±0.05 better than 19% of ATP · raw −0.16
Shot selection −0.19 ±0.10 better than 30% of ATP · raw −0.18
Execution −0.29 ±0.38 better than 53% of ATP · raw −0.18
Tactical adaptability +0.11 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 29 matches
Adaptation speed +0.09 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.48 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 64% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 13,748 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Janko Tipsarevic goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 813 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 48.1%±4.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 26% 44.1%±5.4 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 42.7%±6.7 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 6% 41.0%±9.5 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 4% 34.1%±11.0 35.1%
BH slice down the line 2% 27.7%±12.6 37.1%
FH inside-out 2% 48.1%±14.1 51.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 761 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 20% 51.1%±6.2 46.8%
FH through the middle 18% 51.8%±6.6 47.0%
FH down the line 17% 47.6%±6.7 51.5%
BH crosscourt 17% 45.5%±6.7 49.1%
FH crosscourt 17% 51.7%±6.8 52.7%
BH down the line 7% 45.2%±9.8 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 1% 71.3%±13.4 70.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 576 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 39% 42.4%±5.2 41.5%
FH crosscourt 28% 42.1%±6.1 46.6%
FH down the line 25% 44.5%±6.4 44.7%
FH slice through the middle 5% 21.8%±9.6 24.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 527 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 45% 43.8%±5.1 48.0%
BH through the middle 29% 45.5%±6.3 43.8%
BH down the line 15% 48.3%±8.3 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 34.0%±10.1 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 4% 36.6%±12.4 35.1%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Janko Tipsarevic's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 220 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 36% 46% ▲ 72% / 73%
Body 8% 2% 63% / 63%
T 56% 52% 75% / 75%

1,287 normal · 46 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 43% 72% / 73%
Body 11% 12% 62% / 63%
T 44% 45% 71% / 72%

1,049 normal · 174 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide37% 61.5%±3.5 n=487 31% ▼
Body8% 62.8%±6.8 n=106 0% ▼
T56% 65.0%±2.8 n=740 69% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.41).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 60.7%±3.3 n=548 43% ▼
Body11% 60.3%±6.3 n=134 0% ▼
T44% 63.8%±3.3 n=541 57% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.46).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.50 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.8±3.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,076 repeats, 1,422 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 56 44% +7.3±8.8
1stAd courtT 266 24% −4.2±4.1
1stAd courtWide 373 22% −5.4±3.4
1stDeuce courtBody 74 48% +11.4±8.1
1stDeuce courtT 316 21% −4.4±3.6
1stDeuce courtWide 374 22% −4.9±3.4
2ndAd courtBody 197 46% −3.2±5.4
2ndAd courtT 84 46% −3.0±7.7
2ndAd courtWide 169 51% +2.1±5.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 239 52% +2.6±5.0
2ndDeuce courtT 156 49% −0.8±6.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 94 49% +0.7±7.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Janko Tipsarevic's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 68% · +2.2±7.8 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.2% · won 61% · −5.0±8.9 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 58% · −7.8±9.2 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.1% · won 58% · −7.8±9.2 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 3.4% · won 59% · −6.8±7.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 2.6% · won 52% · +13.6±9.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.4% · won 49% · +10.0±8.1 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.9% · won 49% · +10.2±9.3 vs own baseline
  4. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.8% · won 47% · +8.2±8.5 vs own baseline
  5. vs body serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.0% · won 47% · +8.3±9.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.6% · won 55% · +9.5±7.7 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 6.0% · won 51% · +5.3±5.5 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 4.4% · won 52% · +5.9±6.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.8% · won 50% · +4.5±7.6 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → BH down the line used 1.2% · won 52% · +6.1±10.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Janko Tipsarevic wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → FH inside-out used 0.4% · won 58% · +10.5±11.1 vs own baseline · +13.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. T serve → FH through the middle return, deep → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 58% · +10.4±11.7 vs own baseline · +23.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.2% · won 60% · +12.0±12.8 vs own baseline · +21.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 56% · +8.4±11.0 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (4/8), Mikhail Youzhny (7/9)
  5. FH through the middle → BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 56% · +7.8±11.3 vs own baseline · +14.5 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 54% · +6.4±10.8 vs own baseline · +6.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · return +1+2.7132
FH to the middle · return +1+2.0163
BH to the middle · serve +1+1.6179
BH to the middle · return+1.5538
FH to the middle · serve +1+1.1250

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · serve +1−2.7294
FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.3375
BH to the middle · serve +1−1.8190
FH to the middle · serve +1−1.5164
BH slice to the middle · return−1.4263

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Luciano Darderi, Brandon Nakashima, Milos Raonic, Francisco Cerundolo, Rinky Hijikata

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · deuce56%
Through the middle31%
T serves · ad44%
Avg rally length4.4
FH down the line33%
Deep returns31%
Points at net11%
Chipped returns13%
BH down the line19%
Serve & volley1%
Run-around forehands14%
Backhand slice13%
Unforced errors / shot8.6%
Forehand share50%
Point-ending shots20.2%
Drop shots / shot0.6%
Wide serves · ad45%
Wide serves · deuce37%
1st serve in56%

Plays most like

  1. Viktor Troicki 2009–2021 plan v
  2. Taro Daniel 2014–2024 plan v
  3. Marcos Baghdatis 2004–2019 plan v
  4. Alex De Minaur 2016–2026 plan v
  5. Denis Kudla 2014–2021 plan v
  6. Nicolas Almagro 2006–2019 plan v
  7. Gael Monfils 2005–2026 plan v
  8. Paolo Lorenzi 2014–2019 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Michael Chang 1989–1998
  2. Thomas Enqvist 1993–2001
  3. Aaron Krickstein 1989–1995

Charted matches