RallyIQ

Doha EXH · RR · Hard · 6 Jan 2012

Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Stefan Edberg

40–35 in points · result not charted to completion

Why it went the way it did

Jo Wilfried Tsonga won 5.1 more points than Stefan Edberg relative to what the serve alone predicted. Stefan Edberg's biggest leaks: other shot selection −2.3, forehand execution −1.9, slice execution −1.8.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotJo Wilfried TsongaStefan Edberg
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st −0.1 +0.2 −0.4 −0.4 ±0.0 +0.7 −1.8 −1.0
Serve 2nd ±0.0 +0.1 +0.3 +0.4 ±0.0 +0.1 +1.1 +1.2
Return ±0.0 +0.2 −0.4 −0.3 +0.3 −0.5 −1.0 −1.2
Forehand ±0.0 +1.1 +0.4 +1.6 +0.1 +0.9 −1.9 −0.9
Backhand −0.2 +0.4 −0.4 −0.2 −0.1 +0.1 +0.7 +0.7
Slice +0.1 −1.6 −0.7 −2.2 −0.3 −1.5 −1.8 −3.7
Net −0.3 +0.1 +0.6 +0.4 +0.1 −0.1 −0.4 −0.3
Touch +0.1 −1.3 −0.4 −1.6 ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.2 +0.2
Other ±0.0 −0.2 −0.3 −0.5 −0.3 −2.3 −0.4 −3.1
All shots −0.5−1.2 −1.3−3.0 −0.1−2.6 −5.3−8.0

Set by set

SetJo Wilfried TsongaStefan EdbergNet, Jo
1−3.0−8.0 +5.1

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Jo Wilfried Tsonga

5.1 points left on the table across 141 shots 3.64 per 100 shots

  1. Serve +1: short return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
  2. Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
  4. Return +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts

Stefan Edberg

4.5 points left on the table across 137 shots 3.26 per 100 shots

  1. Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
  2. Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
  3. Return +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts