RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 82 charted matches · 2007–2022

Jo Wilfried Tsonga

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 67.2% ±2.2 raw 65.0% · tour 63.4% · 6,913 points
Return points won 37.0% ±2.4 raw 33.6% · tour 36.6% · 6,872 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.19 ±0.05 better than 94% of ATP · raw +0.19
Shot selection +0.38 ±0.10 better than 85% of ATP · raw +0.37
Execution −0.52 ±0.35 better than 44% of ATP · raw −0.71
Tactical adaptability +0.14 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 79 matches
Adaptation speed +0.09 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.15 ±0.55 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 2,960 shots · better than 57% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.46 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 67% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 33,566 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jo Wilfried Tsonga goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 2,223 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 30% 44.2%±3.1 47.6%
BH through the middle 17% 38.2%±4.1 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 41.2%±4.6 42.5%
BH down the line 11% 38.1%±4.9 46.4%
FH inside-out 8% 50.4%±5.9 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 7% 34.5%±5.9 35.1%
FH inside-in 7% 51.7%±6.3 54.7%
BH slice down the line 2% 33.0%±9.4 37.1%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,343 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 32% 42.5%±3.8 46.9%
BH through the middle 20% 39.4%±4.8 43.0%
BH slice crosscourt 15% 35.5%±5.3 40.9%
BH down the line 14% 40.2%±5.6 44.2%
BH slice through the middle 7% 32.0%±7.3 32.6%
FH inside-out 4% 51.8%±9.6 51.7%
FH inside-in 3% 45.9%±10.0 53.6%
BH slice down the line 3% 42.0%±11.0 33.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,287 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 37.3%±3.4 46.6%
FH down the line 25% 40.6%±4.3 44.7%
FH through the middle 18% 39.3%±5.0 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 6% 13.9%±5.9 24.5%
FH down the line + approach 4% 72.1%±9.2 69.3%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 36.8%±12.0 30.9%
FH slice down the line 2% 32.8%±12.2 25.6%
FH crosscourt + approach 1% 68.3%±13.5 69.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 1,192 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 50.3%±4.5 52.7%
FH down the line 25% 49.9%±4.6 51.5%
FH through the middle 13% 47.7%±6.1 47.0%
BH crosscourt 8% 42.2%±7.5 49.1%
BH through the middle 8% 40.3%±7.5 46.8%
FH down the line + approach 5% 78.2%±7.5 70.5%
FH crosscourt + approach 3% 63.9%±10.1 69.9%
BH down the line 3% 43.5%±10.6 48.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Jo Wilfried Tsonga's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 545 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 55% ▲ 73% / 73%
Body 7% 6% 61% / 63%
T 49% 39% ▼ 80% / 75%

3,470 normal · 130 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 52% 77% / 73%
Body 5% 6% 63% / 63%
T 42% 42% 75% / 72%

2,857 normal · 415 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 64.1%±1.9 n=1,614 39% ▼
Body7% 58.1%±4.9 n=243 0% ▼
T48% 68.2%±1.8 n=1,743 61% ▲

Off equilibrium (p < 0.001): serve T more. Gap 2.5 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.9 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 64.3%±1.9 n=1,708 58% ▲
Body5% 60.8%±5.6 n=178 0% ▼
T42% 64.7%±2.1 n=1,386 42%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.46).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.60 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.1±1.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (3,278 repeats, 3,430 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 225 31% −6.4±4.7
1stAd courtT 708 26% −2.0±2.7
1stAd courtWide 1,133 28% +1.0±2.2
1stDeuce courtBody 311 32% −4.5±4.2
1stDeuce courtT 1,054 26% +1.4±2.2
1stDeuce courtWide 956 25% −1.7±2.3
2ndAd courtBody 265 43% −6.1±4.7
2ndAd courtT 177 40% −8.8±5.6
2ndAd courtWide 757 44% −4.7±2.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 421 46% −3.4±3.9
2ndDeuce courtT 589 47% −2.5±3.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 254 53% +4.9±4.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jo Wilfried Tsonga's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.0% · won 62% · −6.7±5.4 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.1% · won 57% · −11.4±6.4 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 58% · −10.5±5.2 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 56% · −12.6±6.1 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 56% · −12.2±5.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.9% · won 46% · +12.2±5.1 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt, mid used 2.1% · won 50% · +15.6±6.6 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 2.1% · won 44% · +10.1±6.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.9% · won 41% · +7.1±5.7 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.1% · won 41% · +7.2±6.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 55% · +10.7±6.5 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH inside-out used 1.0% · won 55% · +10.8±8.6 vs own baseline
  3. BH down the line → FH down the line used 1.1% · won 51% · +6.9±8.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 48% · +4.0±5.8 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 49% · +4.8±7.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jo Wilfried Tsonga wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line + approach used 0.2% · won 69% · +22.7±10.5 vs own baseline · +13.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 57% · +10.7±6.9 vs own baseline · +4.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (3/10), Novak Djokovic (14/24)
  3. FH down the line + approach → BH lob through the middle → Smash crosscourt used 0.1% · won 69% · +23.0±11.1 vs own baseline · +6.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line + approach used 0.2% · won 63% · +17.0±10.2 vs own baseline · +2.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (4/6), Roger Federer (5/7)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.5% · won 56% · +9.4±7.9 vs own baseline · +5.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Novak Djokovic (10/19), Roger Federer (4/7)
  6. FH down the line + approach → BH lob down the line → Smash crosscourt used 0.1% · won 67% · +21.0±12.1 vs own baseline · +11.1 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Smash to their forehand · rally+2.9120
T 2nd serve · ad court+2.2243
BH slice to their backhand · return+1.8398
BH slice to the middle · return+1.6510
T 1st serve · deuce court+1.41,743

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · return +1−2.2491
T 2nd serve · ad court−1.8177
BH to their forehand · serve +1−1.6314
BH to their backhand · serve +1−1.6578
Body 2nd serve · deuce court−1.0421

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Jack Draper, Ugo Humbert, Rafael Nadal, Casper Ruud, Pablo Carreno Busta

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Run-around forehands29%
Chipped returns25%
Unforced errors / shot11.9%
Point-ending shots27.7%
Forehand share57%
FH down the line33%
T serves · ad42%
T serves · deuce48%
Points at net14%
Backhand slice27%
BH down the line23%
Wide serves · ad52%
Wide serves · deuce45%
1st serve in61%
Drop shots / shot1.5%
Serve & volley7%
Deep returns26%
Avg rally length3.8
Through the middle20%

Plays most like

  1. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v
  2. James Blake 2002–2011 plan v
  3. Roger Federer 1998–2021 plan v
  4. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  5. Joao Fonseca 2024–2026 plan v
  6. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v
  7. Lucas Pouille 2015–2024 plan v
  8. Lloyd Harris 2019–2024 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Jim Courier 1989–1999
  2. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 1994–2002
  3. Mark Philippoussis 1995–2003

Charted matches