Indian Wells · R16 · Hard · 13 Mar 2012
Maria Sharapova v Roberta Vinci
65–40 in points · Maria Sharapova won
Why it went the way it did
Maria Sharapova won 14.0 more points than Roberta Vinci relative to what the serve alone predicted. Roberta Vinci's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.4, return shot selection −1.9, forehand execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Maria Sharapova | Roberta Vinci | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.7 | +3.0 | +3.9 | +0.4 | −1.9 | +0.8 | −0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.5 | +3.4 | +4.3 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | −1.8 | −0.4 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −2.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.8 | +0.7 | −6.4 | +0.4 | −5.4 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +0.8 | +5.6 | +6.5 | +1.5 | −6.7 | −2.3 | −7.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Maria Sharapova | Roberta Vinci | Net, Maria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.1 | −4.3 | +7.5 | |
| 2 | +3.3 | −3.2 | +6.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Maria Sharapova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 67% | 24% 40% | 33% 57% |
| 2 | 43% 80% | 17% 25% | 39% 89% |
Within sets −3.34 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Roberta Vinci serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 39% | 19% 43% | 31% 27% |
| 2 | 50% 58% | 17% 50% | 33% 25% |
Set to set −0.48 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.54 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Maria Sharapova
5.1 points left on the table across 209 shots 2.43 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
Roberta Vinci
4.3 points left on the table across 192 shots 2.26 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH slice crosscourt ×2; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts