RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2012–2017

Roberta Vinci

Archetype: Chip returner · Slice-heavy

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 58.8% ±3.4 raw 57.1% · tour 56.3% · 699 points
Return points won 46.0% ±3.4 raw 45.1% · tour 43.7% · 736 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.25 ±0.27 better than 91% of WTA · raw +0.26
Shot selection −2.26 ±0.24 better than 1% of WTA · raw −2.24
Execution +0.99 ±0.81 better than 91% of WTA · raw +1.11
Points left on the table 3.02 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 11% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,736 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Roberta Vinci goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 240 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 38% 42.9%±7.7 40.4%
BH slice through the middle 35% 40.3%±7.9 34.4%
BH slice down the line 10% 38.5%±11.9 31.7%
FH inside-out 5% 40.9%±14.1 52.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 177 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 44% 57.1%±8.3 46.7%
FH down the line 25% 47.7%±10.2 44.9%
FH through the middle 23% 38.8%±10.3 41.3%
FH down the line + approach 6% 66.9%±14.1 65.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 131 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice through the middle 21% 41.6%±11.7 44.8%
FH through the middle 21% 38.6%±11.7 45.8%
FH crosscourt 19% 61.2%±11.9 52.7%
BH slice crosscourt 15% 52.3%±13.0 49.5%
FH down the line 14% 64.3%±12.8 52.2%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 128 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 55% 46.6%±8.6 39.6%
BH slice through the middle 34% 32.3%±9.6 33.2%
BH slice down the line 11% 34.5%±13.4 28.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +7 How much less varied Roberta Vinci's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 75 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 57% 65% / 66%
Body 8% 10% 47% / 57%
T 42% 33% ▼ 67% / 68%

345 normal · 21 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 52% ▲ 70% / 66%
Body 10% 6% 53% / 56%
T 46% 43% 65% / 64%

278 normal · 54 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 56.7%±5.6 n=183 65% ▲
Body8% 45.4%±10.6 n=30 0% ▼
T42% 53.9%±6.1 n=153 35% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.10).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 60.3%±6.0 n=149 39% ▼
Body10% 55.5%±10.4 n=32 0% ▼
T45% 62.5%±5.9 n=151 61% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.40).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.53 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.5±4.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (277 repeats, 403 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 31 48% +3.9±10.5
1stAd courtT 74 33% −2.2±7.6
1stAd courtWide 107 34% −0.6±6.6
1stDeuce courtBody 48 43% +0.7±9.2
1stDeuce courtT 100 37% +5.3±7.0
1stDeuce courtWide 96 40% +5.8±7.2
2ndAd courtBody 47 64% +9.3±9.0
2ndAd courtT 28 51% −4.2±10.8
2ndAd courtWide 66 57% +3.8±8.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 60 49% −5.2±8.7
2ndDeuce courtT 48 51% −5.0±9.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 30 59% +4.8±10.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Roberta Vinci's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 4.5% · won 59% · −1.3±11.4 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 4.5% · won 57% · −3.3±11.5 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt used 5.0% · won 49% · −11.1±11.3 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, mid used 10.1% · won 50% · +1.6±10.5 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, deep used 8.8% · won 50% · +1.6±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice through the middle, deep used 6.5% · won 47% · −1.4±11.8 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice through the middle, mid used 9.4% · won 45% · −3.5±10.6 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.8% · won 53% · +6.0±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 10.2% · won 51% · +3.7±9.0 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle used 4.6% · won 52% · +5.1±11.5 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 6.2% · won 50% · +3.1±10.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 7.7% · won 48% · +0.9±9.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Roberta Vinci wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 52% · +4.4±11.6 vs own baseline · +7.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elena Vesnina (2/8)
  2. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.6% · won 51% · +3.4±11.8 vs own baseline · +7.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Kirsten Flipkens (10/19)
  3. BH slice crosscourt return, mid → BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.2% · won 46% · −1.1±12.5 vs own baseline · −9.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elena Vesnina (4/10)
  4. BH slice crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.9% · won 46% · −1.2±11.1 vs own baseline · −1.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elena Vesnina (3/13)
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt used 1.5% · won 45% · −1.7±11.8 vs own baseline · +3.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Elena Vesnina (1/6), Jelena Jankovic (2/6)
  6. BH slice through the middle → BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.1% · won 42% · −4.8±12.6 vs own baseline · −8.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+2.1201
BH slice to their backhand · rally+1.6239
BH slice to the middle · rally+1.4171
BH slice to their backhand · return−0.1136
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.3183

Most exposed to

FH to the middle · return−1.3123
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.7144
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.3180
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.3171
T 1st serve · ad court+1.1129

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Elina Avanesyan, Caroline Wozniacki, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Lin Zhu, Qiang Wang

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Backhand slice93%
Chipped returns56%
Points at net14%
Wide serves · deuce50%
Drop shots / shot2.5%
T serves · ad45%
Run-around forehands12%
T serves · deuce42%
Wide serves · ad45%
FH down the line31%
Deep returns34%
Avg rally length4.2
Serve & volley1%
BH down the line19%
Point-ending shots21.0%
Forehand share51%
Through the middle24%
Unforced errors / shot8.4%
1st serve in58%

Plays most like

  1. Kirsten Flipkens 2013–2022 plan v
  2. Ashleigh Barty 2013–2022 plan v
  3. Francesca Schiavone 2006–2017 plan v
  4. Diane Parry 2021–2026 plan v
  5. Amelie Mauresmo 1999–2009 plan v
  6. Tatjana Maria 2015–2026 plan v
  7. Petra Martic 2010–2024 plan v
  8. Karolina Muchova 2019–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Conchita Martinez 1993–2003
  2. Steffi Graf 1985–1999
  3. Gabriela Sabatini 1988–1995

Charted matches