Rome · R64 · Clay · 14 May 2013
Roberta Vinci v Elena Vesnina
120–118 in points · Roberta Vinci won
Why it went the way it did
Roberta Vinci won 0.9 more points than Elena Vesnina relative to what the serve alone predicted. Elena Vesnina's biggest leaks: backhand execution −7.1, forehand execution −4.8, slice shot selection −4.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roberta Vinci | Elena Vesnina | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +3.9 | +4.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Return | +1.2 | −7.4 | +2.9 | −3.3 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +2.4 | +3.0 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +5.7 | −4.5 | +2.2 | +0.9 | +1.9 | −4.8 | −2.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +1.5 | −7.1 | −4.9 |
| Slice | +2.2 | −16.0 | −1.3 | −15.1 | ±0.0 | −4.8 | −1.6 | −6.4 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.6 | +0.4 | +1.2 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Touch | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.9 | +1.1 | +0.4 |
| All shots | +5.7 | −17.7 | +2.2 | −9.7 | +2.1 | −0.8 | −11.8 | −10.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Roberta Vinci | Elena Vesnina | Net, Roberta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.9 | −3.2 | −3.8 | |
| 2 | −3.7 | −5.4 | +1.7 | |
| 3 | +1.0 | −1.9 | +2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roberta Vinci serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 47% | 10% 25% | 44% 50% |
| 2 | 51% 48% | 17% 43% | 32% 69% |
| 3 | 61% 74% | 13% 0% | 26% 60% |
Set to set +1.85 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elena Vesnina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% 41% | 29% 62% | 22% 80% |
| 2 | 23% 40% | 45% 45% | 32% 64% |
| 3 | 41% 58% | 21% 67% | 38% 36% |
Set to set +2.07 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roberta Vinci
8.9 points left on the table across 442 shots 2.00 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×11; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
Elena Vesnina
9.5 points left on the table across 444 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×26; BH down the line rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×14; BH down the line rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×4; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.43 pts