RallyIQ

Chennai · SF · Hard · 4 Jan 2014

Edouard Roger Vasselin v Marcel Granollers

89–74 in points · Edouard Roger Vasselin won

Why it went the way it did

Edouard Roger Vasselin won 3.5 more points than Marcel Granollers relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marcel Granollers's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.7, net execution −1.1, serve 1st direction choices −0.8.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotEdouard Roger VasselinMarcel Granollers
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st −0.7 ±0.0 +1.3 +0.6 −0.8 +0.1 −0.1 −0.9
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.6 +0.6 ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.2 +0.3
Return +0.5 +0.9 −0.4 +0.9 −0.4 −0.6 +1.3 +0.3
Forehand −0.2 +2.1 −3.0 −1.1 −0.6 +1.3 +0.6 +1.3
Backhand −0.2 −0.2 +1.1 +0.8 −0.1 +0.5 +1.2 +1.6
Slice ±0.0 −2.2 +2.1 −0.1 −0.8 −4.7 +0.5 −5.0
Net −0.1 +0.1 −2.0 −2.0 −0.5 +0.2 −1.1 −1.4
Touch −0.1 ±0.0 −0.8 −0.9 ±0.0 −0.2 −0.7 −0.9
All shots −0.7+0.6 −1.1−1.2 −3.2−3.4 +1.8−4.7

Set by set

SetEdouard Roger VasselinMarcel GranollersNet, Edouard
1−0.9−4.0 +3.1
2+0.3+0.6 −0.3
3−0.6−1.3 +0.7

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Edouard Roger Vasselin serving

SetWideBodyT
1 47% 71% 20% 100% 33% 100%
2 24% 67% 32% 50% 44% 73%
3 36% 50% 29% 75% 36% 60%

Set to set −0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Marcel Granollers serving

SetWideBodyT
1 27% 67% 18% 0% 55% 100%
2 39% 56% 48% 73% 13% 67%
3 42% 64% 38% 50% 19% 60%

Set to set −2.12 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.41 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Edouard Roger Vasselin

6.7 points left on the table across 267 shots 2.50 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
  3. Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
  4. Serve +1: short return to your forehand side hit BH through the middle ×1; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts

Marcel Granollers

9.7 points left on the table across 271 shots 3.58 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts