RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 3 charted matches · 2014–2015

Edouard Roger Vasselin

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 33% ▼ 76% / 73%
Body 10% 33% ▲ 62% / 63%
T 48% 33% ▼ 74% / 75%

119 normal · 3 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 51% 40% ▼ 66% / 73%
Body 17% 40% ▲ 65% / 63%
T 32% 20% ▼ 76% / 72%

99 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide42% 71.6%±8.2 n=51
Body11% 64.8%±12.0 n=13
T48% 62.4%±8.5 n=58

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.25).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide49% 63.5%±8.5 n=56
Body20% 65.6%±10.7 n=23
T31% 71.7%±9.2 n=35

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.35).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 12 38% +1.3±12.3
1stAd courtT 26 36% +8.4±10.6
1stAd courtWide 41 28% +1.2±8.8
1stDeuce courtBody 9 38% +1.8±12.8
1stDeuce courtT 26 24% −0.9±9.4
1stDeuce courtWide 43 22% −5.1±8.0
2ndAd courtBody 15 46% −3.1±12.2
2ndAd courtT 9 53% +4.0±13.1
2ndAd courtWide 13 45% −3.0±12.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 12 49% +0.3±12.7
2ndDeuce courtT 13 46% −3.4±12.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 21 42% −6.1±11.4

Charted matches