Australian Open · R64 · Hard · 15 Jan 2014
Richard Gasquet v Nikolay Davydenko
110–97 in points · Richard Gasquet won
Why it went the way it did
Richard Gasquet won 6.5 more points than Nikolay Davydenko relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nikolay Davydenko's biggest leaks: backhand shot selection −2.0, slice shot selection −1.5, slice execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Richard Gasquet | Nikolay Davydenko | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +1.6 | +0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.8 | +3.9 | +5.0 | −0.5 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.3 | −0.5 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −1.0 | ±0.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.5 | +5.8 | +5.3 | −0.6 | −2.0 | +3.9 | +1.3 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −4.3 | +1.8 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | −2.9 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.2 | −2.9 | +10.0 | +7.3 | −1.4 | −2.5 | +4.7 | +0.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Richard Gasquet | Nikolay Davydenko | Net, Richard | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.8 | +2.7 | +1.1 | |
| 2 | +1.1 | +1.7 | −0.6 | |
| 3 | +2.5 | −3.5 | +6.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Richard Gasquet serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% 58% | – | 40% 50% |
| 2 | 69% 70% | 3% 100% | 28% 63% |
| 3 | 40% 67% | – | 60% 61% |
Set to set −0.89 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nikolay Davydenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 30% | 22% 50% | 51% 63% |
| 2 | 12% 67% | 20% 60% | 68% 76% |
| 3 | 30% 77% | 25% 36% | 45% 40% |
Set to set +0.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Richard Gasquet
8.8 points left on the table across 402 shots 2.19 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×6; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Nikolay Davydenko
8.6 points left on the table across 412 shots 2.10 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts