RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 68 charted matches · 2002–2014

Nikolay Davydenko

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.3% ±2.7 raw 62.1% · tour 63.4% · 5,652 points
Return points won 42.4% ±2.9 raw 39.1% · tour 36.6% · 5,713 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.01 ±0.06 better than 56% of ATP · raw −0.01
Shot selection +0.02 ±0.07 better than 54% of ATP · raw ±0.00
Execution +0.14 ±0.29 better than 74% of ATP · raw −0.06
Tactical adaptability ±0.00 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 68 matches
Adaptation speed +0.04 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.40 ±0.48 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 4,343 shots · better than 22% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.24 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 89% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 31,049 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Nikolay Davydenko goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,910 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 42% 51.4%±2.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 30% 49.0%±3.4 43.7%
BH down the line 17% 47.3%±4.4 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 3% 46.4%±9.8 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 2% 32.4%±9.5 35.1%
FH inside-in 2% 39.1%±11.2 54.7%
FH inside-out 1% 49.7%±12.3 51.8%
BH slice down the line 1% 31.9%±11.8 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,699 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 47% 48.6%±2.9 46.6%
FH down the line 27% 50.6%±3.8 44.7%
FH through the middle 19% 43.9%±4.4 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 2% 23.6%±9.1 24.5%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 26.9%±10.4 30.9%
FH down the line + approach 1% 69.7%±12.0 69.3%
FH slice down the line 1% 23.4%±11.2 25.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 1,650 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 54.3%±3.9 52.7%
FH down the line 19% 49.9%±4.5 51.5%
BH through the middle 17% 50.3%±4.7 46.8%
BH crosscourt 15% 46.5%±5.0 49.1%
FH through the middle 14% 49.2%±5.2 47.0%
BH down the line 6% 53.1%±7.6 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 2% 77.3%±9.9 70.5%
FH crosscourt + approach 1% 68.5%±12.9 69.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,156 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 45.2%±3.9 48.0%
BH through the middle 26% 45.0%±4.6 43.8%
BH down the line 26% 45.5%±4.6 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 4% 38.4%±10.2 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 3% 29.4%±9.8 35.1%
FH inside-in 2% 48.4%±13.2 54.3%
BH slice down the line 1% 33.8%±13.5 35.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Nikolay Davydenko's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 534 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 37% 42% 70% / 73%
Body 12% 6% 60% / 63%
T 50% 52% 71% / 75%

2,774 normal · 145 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 54% 67% / 73%
Body 10% 12% 66% / 63%
T 41% 34% 68% / 72%

2,294 normal · 389 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide38% 63.7%±2.4 n=1,096 51% ▲
Body12% 57.9%±4.2 n=347 0% ▼
T51% 64.2%±2.0 n=1,476 49% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.035): serve T more. Gap 1.0 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 60.3%±2.2 n=1,335 44% ▼
Body10% 64.0%±4.6 n=265 23% ▲
T40% 60.1%±2.4 n=1,083 33% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.39).
Optimal mix: +0.1 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.41 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.0±2.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (2,061 repeats, 3,405 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 115 39% +2.4±6.7
1stAd courtT 684 31% +3.4±2.9
1stAd courtWide 759 31% +4.0±2.7
1stDeuce courtBody 186 38% +0.8±5.4
1stDeuce courtT 799 27% +2.4±2.5
1stDeuce courtWide 885 28% +1.0±2.4
2ndAd courtBody 217 43% −6.1±5.2
2ndAd courtT 262 52% +2.4±4.8
2ndAd courtWide 675 52% +3.5±3.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 346 53% +3.6±4.2
2ndDeuce courtT 480 55% +5.4±3.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 266 57% +8.5±4.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Nikolay Davydenko's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.6% · won 61% · −3.1±6.2 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.4% · won 61% · −3.4±5.5 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 59% · −5.7±6.5 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.6% · won 59% · −5.5±6.2 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 2.1% · won 56% · −8.8±6.9 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.9% · won 57% · +15.1±5.0 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (ad court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.5% · won 55% · +12.8±5.8 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.2% · won 58% · +15.6±7.0 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 4.9% · won 51% · +8.9±5.0 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.1% · won 55% · +12.8±7.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 59% · +8.8±5.5 vs own baseline
  2. BH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 59% · +8.1±7.4 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 54% · +3.2±4.5 vs own baseline
  4. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 55% · +4.0±6.3 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.5% · won 53% · +2.8±6.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Nikolay Davydenko wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 61% · +10.3±7.6 vs own baseline · +5.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Richard Gasquet (3/6), Tommy Haas (3/6)
  2. Wide serve → BH slice crosscourt return, mid → FH inside-in used 0.2% · won 69% · +17.7±10.6 vs own baseline · +24.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (15/19)
  3. T serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.3% · won 62% · +10.9±9.1 vs own baseline · +12.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (3/6), Richard Gasquet (4/6)
  4. Wide serve → BH slice through the middle return, short → FH crosscourt + approach used 0.1% · won 70% · +19.1±11.8 vs own baseline · +24.7 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 59% · +7.4±7.6 vs own baseline · +6.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (16/31), Novak Djokovic (5/9)
  6. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.4% · won 60% · +8.8±8.6 vs own baseline · +8.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Body 1st serve · deuce court+1.5347
BH to their forehand · return+1.3448
BH to the middle · return +1+1.3416
Body 2nd serve · deuce court+1.1359
FH to the middle · return+1.1925

Most exposed to

BH slice to their backhand · return−4.1405
BH to the middle · return−3.21,044
FH slice to the middle · rally−3.1133
BH slice to the middle · return−2.1466
BH slice to the middle · return +1−2.0173

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, Richard Gasquet, Casper Ruud, Novak Djokovic

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

1st serve in67%
T serves · deuce51%
Avg rally length4.5
FH down the line32%
BH down the line22%
T serves · ad40%
Forehand share54%
Wide serves · ad50%
Unforced errors / shot9.6%
Point-ending shots22.8%
Through the middle24%
Deep returns24%
Serve & volley0%
Chipped returns10%
Points at net9%
Run-around forehands11%
Drop shots / shot0.5%
Wide serves · deuce38%
Backhand slice7%

Plays most like

  1. Learner Tien 2022–2026 plan v
  2. Alexander Zverev 2014–2026 plan v
  3. Denis Istomin 2006–2021 plan v
  4. Borna Coric 2015–2025 plan v
  5. Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v
  6. Fernando Verdasco 2005–2022 plan v
  7. David Nalbandian 2002–2012 plan v
  8. Karen Khachanov 2015–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Learner Tien 2022–2026
  2. Benjamin Bonzi 2021–2025
  3. Jack Draper 2022–2026

Charted matches