Australian Open · QF · Hard · 22 Jan 2014
Novak Djokovic v Stan Wawrinka
161–153 in points · Stan Wawrinka won
Why it went the way it did
Novak Djokovic won 7.7 more points than Stan Wawrinka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Stan Wawrinka's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −8.2, return shot selection −4.6, serve 1st execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Novak Djokovic | Stan Wawrinka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +0.8 | −0.2 | −1.2 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Return | −0.5 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +1.1 | −4.6 | −0.1 | −3.7 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +5.3 | −2.6 | +3.7 | +0.1 | +4.8 | +3.9 | +8.9 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.9 | +5.9 | +5.4 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +2.9 | +3.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.7 | +1.8 | −2.0 | +0.8 | −8.2 | +1.2 | −6.2 |
| Net | +0.6 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.8 | +0.6 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +1.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −1.3 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.3 | −1.3 |
| All shots | +1.5 | +0.1 | +8.4 | +10.1 | +3.9 | −8.6 | +7.1 | +2.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Novak Djokovic | Stan Wawrinka | Net, Novak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | −3.8 | +4.9 | |
| 2 | +3.0 | +4.0 | −1.0 | |
| 3 | −2.5 | +0.5 | −3.1 | |
| 4 | +6.6 | +0.1 | +6.5 | |
| 5 | +1.9 | +1.5 | +0.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Novak Djokovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 67% | – | 45% 80% |
| 2 | 60% 61% | – | 40% 75% |
| 3 | 32% 57% | 9% 100% | 59% 46% |
| 4 | 55% 82% | – | 45% 64% |
| 5 | 46% 72% | 13% 40% | 41% 75% |
Set to set +1.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Stan Wawrinka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 58% | – | 52% 46% |
| 2 | 57% 71% | – | 43% 69% |
| 3 | 64% 69% | 4% 100% | 32% 63% |
| 4 | 55% 48% | – | 45% 65% |
| 5 | 38% 70% | – | 62% 66% |
Set to set +0.55 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.62 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Novak Djokovic
15.6 points left on the table across 761 shots 2.05 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×8; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.68 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
Stan Wawrinka
15.5 points left on the table across 756 shots 2.05 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×18; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.91 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×16; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.88 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.75 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts