San Luis Potosi CH · R32 · Clay · 15 Apr 2014
Paolo Lorenzi v Mauricio Echazu
70–45 in points · Paolo Lorenzi won
Why it went the way it did
Paolo Lorenzi won 12.9 more points than Mauricio Echazu relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mauricio Echazu's biggest leaks: forehand execution −8.4, serve 2nd execution −2.7, return execution −2.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Paolo Lorenzi | Mauricio Echazu | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −2.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.7 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | −2.8 |
| Return | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −2.6 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +1.5 | −1.8 | −1.1 | −1.1 | +1.6 | −8.4 | −7.9 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.8 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −2.1 | −2.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.4 | +0.6 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.1 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −4.0 | −4.9 | −1.8 | +1.5 | −17.5 | −17.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Paolo Lorenzi | Mauricio Echazu | Net, Paolo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.9 | −10.4 | +7.6 | |
| 2 | −2.1 | −7.3 | +5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Paolo Lorenzi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 82% | 21% 33% | 41% 75% |
| 2 | 30% 38% | 11% 0% | 59% 88% |
Set to set +0.58 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.61 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mauricio Echazu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 47% | 29% 45% | 32% 50% |
| 2 | 14% 67% | 38% 25% | 48% 40% |
Set to set +0.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.96 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Paolo Lorenzi
5.7 points left on the table across 200 shots 2.84 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Mauricio Echazu
6.7 points left on the table across 210 shots 3.17 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts