Lima CH · F · Clay · 17 Nov 2014
Jason Kubler v Guido Pella
54–72 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Guido Pella won 8.8 more points than Jason Kubler relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jason Kubler's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.8, slice shot selection −2.4, serve 2nd execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jason Kubler | Guido Pella | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Return | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +3.5 | +3.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +2.1 | +2.7 |
| Forehand | +1.1 | +2.3 | −3.8 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +2.3 | +0.3 | +2.7 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.7 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.4 | −0.3 | −2.9 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.7 | −1.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −0.8 | −2.2 | −2.7 | −0.4 | +1.7 | +4.7 | +6.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Jason Kubler | Guido Pella | Net, Jason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.4 | +2.2 | −5.6 | |
| 2 | +0.7 | +3.9 | −3.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jason Kubler serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 44% | 13% 50% | 59% 42% |
| 2 | 40% 83% | 20% 50% | 40% 25% |
Set to set +0.69 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Guido Pella serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 64% | 13% 75% | 52% 56% |
| 2 | 39% 54% | 18% 67% | 42% 71% |
Set to set −0.76 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.78 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jason Kubler
4.9 points left on the table across 239 shots 2.05 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Guido Pella
6.5 points left on the table across 235 shots 2.78 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×15; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.23 pts