RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2014–2024

Jason Kubler

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.4% ±3.6 raw 58.4% · tour 63.4% · 668 points
Return points won 36.2% ±3.5 raw 36.3% · tour 36.6% · 672 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.03 ±0.10 better than 66% of ATP · raw +0.04
Shot selection +0.26 ±0.30 better than 77% of ATP · raw +0.28
Execution +0.04 ±0.34 better than 70% of ATP · raw +0.29
Points left on the table 2.17 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 95% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,796 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jason Kubler goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 323 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 47% 46.5%±6.2 47.6%
BH through the middle 20% 32.3%±8.3 43.7%
BH down the line 18% 30.2%±8.6 46.4%
FH inside-out 5% 53.8%±13.7 51.8%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 29.2%±12.5 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 28.7%±12.6 35.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 252 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 40% 45.6%±7.4 48.0%
BH through the middle 25% 42.6%±8.9 43.8%
BH down the line 15% 49.6%±10.9 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 36.7%±12.2 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 6% 22.9%±11.7 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 182 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 34% 46.7%±9.1 51.5%
FH crosscourt 20% 53.6%±10.9 52.7%
BH through the middle 14% 45.3%±12.2 46.8%
BH crosscourt 13% 47.3%±12.4 49.1%
BH down the line 9% 49.0%±13.7 48.3%
FH through the middle 7% 37.6%±13.9 47.0%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 150 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 39% 51.1%±9.3 46.9%
BH through the middle 27% 39.3%±10.4 43.0%
BH down the line 16% 45.1%±12.3 44.2%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 35.8%±13.5 40.9%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Jason Kubler's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 67 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 53% ▲ 70% / 73%
Body 11% 6% 62% / 63%
T 48% 41% 74% / 75%

328 normal · 17 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 42% 64% / 73%
Body 8% 10% 62% / 63%
T 43% 48% 60% / 72%

273 normal · 50 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide41% 60.8%±6.1 n=143 50% ▲
Body11% 55.7%±10.0 n=37 0% ▼
T48% 61.5%±5.7 n=165 50% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.54).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 58.3%±6.0 n=154 61% ▲
Body8% 57.9%±10.8 n=27 0% ▼
T44% 53.7%±6.3 n=142 39% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.58).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.42 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.9±9.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (273 repeats, 383 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 27 46% +8.8±10.9
1stAd courtT 70 34% +6.4±7.8
1stAd courtWide 114 26% −1.4±6.0
1stDeuce courtBody 26 41% +4.4±10.8
1stDeuce courtT 91 20% −4.8±6.0
1stDeuce courtWide 123 31% +4.3±6.2
2ndAd courtBody 38 54% +4.8±9.9
2ndAd courtT 11 53% +3.9±12.8
2ndAd courtWide 61 39% −9.3±8.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 43 48% −1.5±9.6
2ndDeuce courtT 47 52% +2.1±9.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 21 48% −0.2±11.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jason Kubler's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 5.9% · won 62% · −4.3±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → BH down the line used 5.1% · won 58% · −8.6±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.9% · won 58% · −8.1±11.2 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH inside-in used 5.6% · won 58% · −8.9±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 7.4% · won 54% · −12.3±10.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 7.3% · won 43% · +4.4±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.0% · won 40% · +0.8±11.3 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 9.5% · won 39% · −0.2±10.7 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 10.9% · won 38% · −1.1±10.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 6.4% · won 50% · +6.9±9.6 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 7.0% · won 49% · +5.6±9.3 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 49% · +6.1±10.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.8% · won 47% · +3.9±8.9 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 5.2% · won 47% · +3.8±10.2 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jason Kubler wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 1.1% · won 52% · +8.6±11.9 vs own baseline · +9.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniel Elahi Galan (5/7), Radu Albot (6/8)
  2. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 49% · +6.4±13.0 vs own baseline · +12.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Karen Khachanov (4/9)
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 46% · +2.7±9.3 vs own baseline · −1.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Thomas Fabbiano (0/7), Daniel Elahi Galan (13/26)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 0.8% · won 47% · +4.0±12.7 vs own baseline · +6.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniel Elahi Galan (2/8)
  5. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 44% · +1.4±13.0 vs own baseline · ±0.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.3% · won 44% · +0.8±11.3 vs own baseline · −0.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · return+2.8127
BH to the middle · return+1.9161
BH to their backhand · return+1.3122
BH to their backhand · rally+1.2324
FH to their backhand · serve +1+0.7146

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · rally−2.4173
FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.0146
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.2168
BH to their backhand · return−1.0133
FH to their backhand · rally−0.5250

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Raphael Collignon, Jack Draper, Pedro Martinez, Thiago Monteiro

Charted matches