Brisbane · R32 · Hard · 5 Jan 2015
Elina Svitolina v Magdalena Rybarikova
67–48 in points · Elina Svitolina won
Why it went the way it did
Elina Svitolina won 9.4 more points than Magdalena Rybarikova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Magdalena Rybarikova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.4, backhand execution −3.6, slice shot selection −3.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Elina Svitolina | Magdalena Rybarikova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.0 |
| Return | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.4 | +0.4 | −1.5 | −1.3 | −2.3 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +1.1 | −2.6 | −2.3 | −0.4 | +1.0 | −4.4 | −3.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +1.4 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −3.6 | −3.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −0.3 | −3.0 | +1.6 | −1.7 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| All shots | −1.1 | +1.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −2.8 | −7.2 | −10.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Elina Svitolina | Magdalena Rybarikova | Net, Elina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.5 | −4.7 | +7.3 | |
| 2 | −3.2 | −5.3 | +2.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Elina Svitolina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 78% | 25% 80% | 30% 50% |
| 2 | 45% 71% | 24% 44% | 32% 58% |
Within sets −0.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Magdalena Rybarikova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 38% | 21% 20% | 25% 50% |
| 2 | 48% 56% | 24% 63% | 27% 44% |
Within sets +1.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Elina Svitolina
6.3 points left on the table across 191 shots 3.27 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
Magdalena Rybarikova
5.8 points left on the table across 196 shots 2.97 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts