RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 155 charted matches · 2013–2026

Elina Svitolina

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Rallies through the middle

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 59.2% ±2.3 raw 57.8% · tour 56.3% · 11,244 points
Return points won 48.0% ±2.4 raw 44.4% · tour 43.7% · 11,371 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.09 ±0.04 better than 37% of WTA · raw −0.09
Shot selection −0.08 ±0.06 better than 36% of WTA · raw −0.08
Execution +0.90 ±0.18 better than 88% of WTA · raw +0.85
Tactical adaptability −0.13 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 155 matches
Adaptation speed −0.02 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.66 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 41% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 60,377 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Elina Svitolina goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 3,576 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 47% 48.8%±2.0 47.6%
BH through the middle 28% 46.5%±2.6 43.3%
BH down the line 10% 49.0%±4.3 46.8%
BH slice crosscourt 5% 37.3%±5.9 40.4%
BH slice through the middle 4% 31.2%±5.7 34.4%
FH inside-out 1% 57.3%±10.3 52.5%
BH lob through the middle 1% 24.9%±9.3 27.1%
BH slice down the line 1% 21.5%±9.8 31.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 3,551 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 23% 48.4%±2.9 45.8%
FH crosscourt 21% 51.9%±3.0 52.7%
FH down the line 17% 55.6%±3.3 52.2%
BH through the middle 16% 45.5%±3.4 46.2%
BH crosscourt 11% 53.2%±4.0 50.9%
BH down the line 7% 53.1%±4.9 50.0%
BH slice through the middle 1% 46.3%±9.9 44.8%
FH down the line + approach 1% 72.2%±9.9 68.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 3,428 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 40% 47.8%±2.2 46.7%
FH through the middle 33% 43.3%±2.4 41.3%
FH down the line 14% 45.8%±3.7 44.9%
FH slice through the middle 6% 36.3%±5.1 29.2%
FH slice crosscourt 4% 34.0%±6.3 31.9%
FH slice down the line 1% 23.3%±8.4 24.3%
FH lob through the middle 1% 28.3%±11.4 29.4%
FH down the line + approach 0% 67.9%±13.2 65.4%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 1,948 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 21% 51.4%±4.0 46.5%
FH crosscourt 18% 50.5%±4.2 52.3%
BH through the middle 17% 50.5%±4.4 46.2%
FH down the line 14% 56.0%±4.8 53.0%
BH crosscourt 13% 53.5%±4.9 50.8%
BH down the line 10% 51.9%±5.6 50.6%
BH slice through the middle 2% 52.5%±10.0 45.9%
FH slice through the middle 1% 44.2%±12.0 41.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index ±0 How much less varied Elina Svitolina's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 1204 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 37% 69% / 66%
Body 17% 16% 56% / 57%
T 44% 46% 70% / 68%

5,532 normal · 286 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 40% 69% / 66%
Body 15% 16% 59% / 56%
T 41% 44% 64% / 64%

4,476 normal · 918 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 60.4%±1.7 n=2,259 54% ▲
Body17% 53.1%±2.6 n=970 2% ▼
T45% 58.5%±1.6 n=2,589 44%

Off equilibrium (p < 0.001): serve wide more. Gap 2.1 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.0 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 58.0%±1.7 n=2,343 59% ▲
Body15% 56.1%±2.8 n=830 0% ▼
T41% 57.1%±1.7 n=2,221 41%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.56).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.72 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: ±0.0±1.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (4,050 repeats, 6,852 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 707 42% −1.5±3.0
1stAd courtT 1,331 34% −1.8±2.1
1stAd courtWide 1,309 36% +1.1±2.2
1stDeuce courtBody 776 43% +0.4±2.9
1stDeuce courtT 1,118 32% −0.4±2.3
1stDeuce courtWide 1,725 35% +0.6±1.9
2ndAd courtBody 1,045 58% +3.1±2.5
2ndAd courtT 290 56% +0.7±4.6
2ndAd courtWide 785 57% +3.8±2.9
2ndDeuce courtBody 1,120 58% +3.1±2.4
2ndDeuce courtT 647 58% +2.3±3.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 493 58% +3.8±3.6

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Elina Svitolina's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 59% · −2.0±4.8 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 57% · −4.2±5.1 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 57% · −4.1±4.8 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.1% · won 55% · −6.1±5.2 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 2.2% · won 53% · −7.8±5.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.9% · won 57% · +12.8±4.5 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 3.3% · won 53% · +9.4±4.3 vs own baseline
  3. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.1% · won 55% · +11.5±5.3 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, short used 2.4% · won 55% · +10.6±5.0 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.2% · won 55% · +10.8±5.2 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 54% · +7.2±3.6 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 2.9% · won 52% · +5.2±3.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH down the line used 1.1% · won 55% · +7.6±6.1 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 54% · +6.8±5.7 vs own baseline
  5. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 52% · +5.2±4.6 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Elina Svitolina wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 57% · +8.6±5.0 vs own baseline · +9.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jessica Pegula (2/8), Simona Halep (4/11)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 57% · +9.0±5.4 vs own baseline · +4.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Coco Gauff (2/8), Sofia Kenin (2/7)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.6% · won 56% · +8.0±5.7 vs own baseline · +3.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Sofia Kenin (3/10), Karolina Pliskova (3/9)
  4. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 57% · +8.7±7.0 vs own baseline · +5.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jasmine Paolini (4/6)
  5. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.1% · won 62% · +13.5±9.7 vs own baseline · +13.2 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH down the line → BH slice through the middle → FH down the line used 0.2% · won 60% · +11.2±8.8 vs own baseline · +2.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH volley to their backhand · rally+2.9164
Wide 2nd serve · deuce court+2.8275
BH to their forehand · serve +1+2.1587
FH to the middle · return+2.02,334
BH to their backhand · rally+1.83,383

Most exposed to

BH volley to their forehand · rally−4.3196
FH volley to their forehand · rally−3.1227
BH drop shot to their backhand · rally−2.6131
FH to their backhand · return−2.0939
BH volley to their backhand · rally−1.6155

Best-equipped opponents

Active players whose shot mix lines up best against these weaknesses, by structural compatibility per 100 rally shots: Sara Sorribes Tormo +2.85, Caroline Wozniacki +2.51, Angelique Kerber +1.99, Daria Kasatkina +1.97, Sara Errani +1.86

Favourable matchups

Sara Errani +2.86, Marie Bouzkova +2.51, Angelique Kerber +2.49, Elina Avanesyan +2.18, Katie Volynets +2.14

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Bianca Andreescu

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the WTA average, in standard deviations.

Through the middle35%
T serves · deuce45%
Avg rally length4.4
T serves · ad41%
Wide serves · ad43%
Forehand share54%
Serve & volley0%
Chipped returns9%
Wide serves · deuce39%
Points at net6%
Backhand slice11%
Run-around forehands5%
Deep returns31%
1st serve in61%
Drop shots / shot1.0%
Point-ending shots20.2%
Unforced errors / shot8.8%
BH down the line15%
FH down the line23%

Plays most like

  1. Ana Bogdan 2019–2024 plan v
  2. Heather Watson 2014–2024 plan v
  3. Maria Sakkari 2015–2026 plan v
  4. Jaqueline Cristian 2021–2026 plan v
  5. Johanna Larsson 2013–2019 plan v
  6. Andrea Petkovic 2010–2022 plan v
  7. Irina Camelia Begu 2015–2024 plan v
  8. Jessica Pegula 2015–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Elena Dementieva 1999–2010
  2. Anastasia Myskina 2002–2006
  3. Monica Seles 1990–2003

Charted matches