Australian Open · R16 · Hard · 26 Jan 2015
Gilles Muller v Novak Djokovic
89–108 in points · Novak Djokovic won
Why it went the way it did
Novak Djokovic won 11.7 more points than Gilles Muller relative to what the serve alone predicted. Gilles Muller's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.0, serve 1st execution −2.3, return execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Gilles Muller | Novak Djokovic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | +1.5 | −2.3 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +2.6 | +2.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.9 | +2.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.3 | −2.4 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.9 | −1.0 | +1.2 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +1.9 | +3.4 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.4 | +2.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −3.0 | +0.3 | −2.9 | +0.1 | −2.5 | +3.8 | +1.5 |
| Net | +1.3 | −0.5 | +2.2 | +2.9 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +1.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −1.0 | −0.1 | −0.4 | +0.9 | +0.4 |
| All shots | +1.1 | −1.4 | −1.7 | −1.9 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +10.2 | +9.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Gilles Muller | Novak Djokovic | Net, Gilles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.0 | +2.0 | −3.0 | |
| 2 | −5.4 | −0.6 | −4.8 | |
| 3 | +4.4 | +8.4 | −3.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Gilles Muller serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 62% | 12% 100% | 36% 67% |
| 2 | 33% 69% | 23% 56% | 44% 65% |
| 3 | 53% 62% | 13% 60% | 35% 64% |
Set to set +0.20 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Novak Djokovic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 64% | 28% 86% | 28% 100% |
| 2 | 52% 73% | 3% 100% | 45% 85% |
| 3 | 54% 75% | 14% 40% | 32% 83% |
Set to set −1.63 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Gilles Muller
9.7 points left on the table across 291 shots 3.35 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
Novak Djokovic
8.2 points left on the table across 297 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×2; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts