RallyIQ

Monte Carlo Masters · QF · Clay · 17 Apr 2015

Milos Raonic v Tomas Berdych

17–26 in points · result not charted to completion

Why it went the way it did

Tomas Berdych won 6.1 more points than Milos Raonic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Milos Raonic's biggest leaks: forehand execution −1.4, slice shot selection −1.4, return execution −1.2.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotMilos RaonicTomas Berdych
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st ±0.0 +0.3 −0.3 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.1 +0.1
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.4 +0.4 ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.3 +0.3
Return +0.1 −0.3 −1.2 −1.4 +0.2 +0.4 −0.1 +0.5
Forehand +0.1 +0.3 −1.4 −1.1 +0.1 +0.4 −0.5 −0.1
Backhand +0.1 ±0.0 −0.9 −0.8 +0.2 +0.2 +1.5 +1.8
Slice ±0.0 −1.4 ±0.0 −1.4 −0.1 −0.3 −0.4 −0.8
Net +0.2 ±0.0 −0.5 −0.3 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.4 −0.3
All shots +0.4−1.1 −4.0−4.6 +0.4+0.7 +0.3+1.4

Set by set

SetMilos RaonicTomas BerdychNet, Milos
1−4.6+1.4 −6.1

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Milos Raonic

1.1 points left on the table across 45 shots 2.37 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.16 pts
  2. Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.09 pts
  3. Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.08 pts
  4. Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.07 pts

Tomas Berdych

1.1 points left on the table across 57 shots 1.96 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.18 pts
  2. Return +1: slice to your middle hit BH slice through the middle + approach ×1; BH slice crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.15 pts
  3. Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH down the line ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.09 pts
  4. Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.07 pts