RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 86 charted matches · 2005–2019

Tomas Berdych

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 67.7% ±2.2 raw 63.7% · tour 63.4% · 7,194 points
Return points won 36.7% ±2.4 raw 31.7% · tour 36.6% · 6,938 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.03 ±0.05 better than 65% of ATP · raw +0.03
Shot selection +0.23 ±0.08 better than 74% of ATP · raw +0.21
Execution −0.28 ±0.28 better than 53% of ATP · raw −0.57
Tactical adaptability +0.04 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 83 matches
Adaptation speed +0.19 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Long-rally execution −0.59 ±0.51 shot 9 on v own earlier rally shots · 3,958 shots · better than 9% of ATP
Points left on the table 2.33 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 82% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 35,602 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Tomas Berdych goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 2,157 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 37% 44.7%±2.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 38.4%±3.6 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 43.2%±4.4 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 35.9%±5.8 42.5%
FH inside-out 4% 52.2%±8.0 51.8%
BH slice through the middle 4% 24.5%±7.1 35.1%
FH inside-in 4% 51.0%±8.4 54.7%
BH slice down the line 3% 24.3%±7.7 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 1,640 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 45% 43.5%±3.0 46.6%
FH down the line 24% 36.9%±3.9 44.7%
FH through the middle 22% 31.4%±3.9 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 4% 20.1%±7.2 24.5%
FH down the line + approach 2% 70.1%±10.2 69.3%
FH slice crosscourt 2% 26.5%±10.7 30.9%
FH slice down the line 1% 21.2%±10.3 25.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 1,540 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 27% 49.4%±3.9 51.5%
FH crosscourt 24% 46.1%±4.1 52.7%
FH through the middle 15% 45.5%±5.1 47.0%
BH through the middle 11% 40.7%±5.9 46.8%
BH crosscourt 10% 44.7%±6.2 49.1%
BH down the line 5% 40.5%±8.2 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 3% 67.3%±9.2 70.5%
FH crosscourt + approach 1% 69.7%±11.5 69.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 1,203 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 43.8%±3.6 48.0%
BH through the middle 18% 32.0%±5.0 43.8%
BH down the line 15% 43.4%±5.8 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 28.9%±6.6 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 5% 21.7%±7.4 35.1%
FH inside-in 3% 61.4%±10.3 54.3%
FH inside-out 3% 51.7%±10.7 52.6%
BH slice down the line 3% 27.4%±9.6 35.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +6 How much less varied Tomas Berdych's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 568 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 53% 77% / 73%
Body 10% 5% 62% / 63%
T 42% 41% 77% / 75%

3,602 normal · 133 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 46% 75% / 73%
Body 7% 5% 65% / 63%
T 50% 50% 73% / 72%

2,970 normal · 435 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide48% 65.9%±1.8 n=1,788 61% ▲
Body10% 58.7%±4.0 n=381 0% ▼
T42% 65.6%±2.0 n=1,566 39% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.009): serve wide more. Gap 0.8 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide43% 61.7%±2.1 n=1,455 37% ▼
Body7% 63.6%±4.9 n=236 0% ▼
T50% 62.5%±1.9 n=1,714 63% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.76).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.46 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +1.8±2.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (2,487 repeats, 4,481 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 159 40% +2.7±5.9
1stAd courtT 898 24% −4.2±2.3
1stAd courtWide 1,025 21% −5.9±2.1
1stDeuce courtBody 257 32% −4.3±4.5
1stDeuce courtT 1,046 20% −4.7±2.0
1stDeuce courtWide 1,085 24% −2.7±2.1
2ndAd courtBody 377 47% −2.2±4.1
2ndAd courtT 208 48% −1.1±5.3
2ndAd courtWide 611 45% −3.0±3.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 518 48% −0.5±3.5
2ndDeuce courtT 486 47% −2.6±3.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 229 44% −3.9±5.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Tomas Berdych's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 63% · −3.4±5.4 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 61% · −5.3±5.8 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.4% · won 59% · −7.8±5.9 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 59% · −8.0±5.9 vs own baseline
  5. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.2% · won 58% · −8.9±5.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.1% · won 50% · +16.7±6.8 vs own baseline
  2. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, deep used 2.3% · won 45% · +11.1±6.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, deep used 2.3% · won 45% · +11.0±6.4 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 4.0% · won 42% · +8.3±5.0 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 3.9% · won 39% · +5.8±5.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 51% · +8.2±6.4 vs own baseline
  2. FH down the line → FH inside-out used 1.1% · won 50% · +7.2±7.8 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH down the line used 1.3% · won 49% · +6.4±7.2 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 2.9% · won 47% · +4.2±5.2 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 1.2% · won 49% · +6.3±7.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Tomas Berdych wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line + approach → BH lob through the middle → Smash crosscourt used 0.1% · won 71% · +25.5±10.9 vs own baseline · +10.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andy Murray (9/9)
  2. Body serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 58% · +12.3±8.6 vs own baseline · +10.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (5/12), Andy Murray (3/7)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line + approach used 0.2% · won 61% · +15.9±10.7 vs own baseline · +3.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (6/7)
  4. Wide serve → FH through the middle return, mid → FH down the line used 0.3% · won 58% · +12.2±9.3 vs own baseline · +7.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Roger Federer (5/12), Novak Djokovic (4/8)
  5. T serve → BH slice through the middle return, short → FH crosscourt + approach used 0.1% · won 64% · +18.2±12.1 vs own baseline · +19.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH down the line → BH slice through the middle → FH down the line used 0.2% · won 57% · +12.0±10.1 vs own baseline · +6.2 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · return +1+3.2581
BH to their forehand · return+2.2566
FH to the middle · return+1.91,129
FH to their forehand · return+1.7488
BH slice to their backhand · return+1.4145

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · serve +1−4.61,038
FH to their forehand · rally−2.82,216
FH slice to the middle · return−2.5237
BH to their backhand · serve +1−2.3574
FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.31,201

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Luciano Darderi, Brandon Nakashima, Milos Raonic, Francisco Cerundolo, Rinky Hijikata

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · ad50%
Forehand share57%
Wide serves · deuce48%
Run-around forehands24%
FH down the line32%
BH down the line22%
Deep returns29%
Unforced errors / shot10.4%
Point-ending shots24.3%
Avg rally length4.0
Points at net11%
Backhand slice19%
Chipped returns12%
Serve & volley1%
T serves · deuce42%
Through the middle22%
1st serve in58%
Drop shots / shot0.4%
Wide serves · ad43%

Plays most like

  1. Robin Soderling 2004–2011 plan v
  2. Lucas Pouille 2015–2024 plan v
  3. Kyle Edmund 2016–2023 plan v
  4. Rinky Hijikata 2023–2026 plan v
  5. Roman Safiullin 2017–2025 plan v
  6. Tommy Paul 2016–2026 plan v
  7. Andy Roddick 2001–2012 plan v
  8. Fabio Fognini 2012–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Thomas Enqvist 1993–2001
  2. Jim Courier 1989–1999
  3. Michael Chang 1989–1998

Charted matches