Bucharest · SF · Clay · 25 Apr 2015
Jiri Vesely v Daniel Gimeno Traver
81–65 in points · Jiri Vesely won
Why it went the way it did
Jiri Vesely won 10.1 more points than Daniel Gimeno Traver relative to what the serve alone predicted. Daniel Gimeno Traver's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.9, net execution −1.6, serve 2nd execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jiri Vesely | Daniel Gimeno Traver | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | +1.9 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.3 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.5 |
| Return | +0.2 | +2.5 | −2.2 | +0.5 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +2.4 | +2.2 | +4.6 | +1.2 | +3.6 | +1.0 | +5.8 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | −0.3 | +3.6 | +3.4 | −0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −1.5 | +0.7 | −1.1 | −0.4 | −2.9 | +0.8 | −2.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.5 | −1.6 | −0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.3 |
| All shots | −0.1 | +3.5 | +7.4 | +10.8 | +0.7 | +1.6 | −1.6 | +0.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Jiri Vesely | Daniel Gimeno Traver | Net, Jiri | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.6 | +7.0 | −4.4 | |
| 2 | +3.5 | −4.7 | +8.2 | |
| 3 | +4.6 | −1.7 | +6.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jiri Vesely serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 50% | 9% 50% | 36% 25% |
| 2 | 44% 100% | 17% 100% | 39% 71% |
| 3 | 58% 93% | 17% 100% | 25% 50% |
Set to set +4.29 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +2.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Daniel Gimeno Traver serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 75% | – | 65% 53% |
| 2 | 60% 58% | – | 40% 25% |
| 3 | 56% 68% | 8% 33% | 36% 50% |
Set to set −1.85 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jiri Vesely
7.2 points left on the table across 303 shots 2.38 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
Daniel Gimeno Traver
6.6 points left on the table across 308 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts