RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 9 charted matches · 2015–2023

Jiri Vesely

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 68.0% ±3.0 raw 68.1% · tour 63.4% · 828 points
Return points won 37.9% ±3.2 raw 36.1% · tour 36.6% · 851 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.03 ±0.09 better than 47% of ATP · raw −0.03
Shot selection +0.08 ±0.26 better than 63% of ATP · raw +0.09
Execution +0.24 ±0.93 better than 78% of ATP · raw +0.32
Points left on the table 2.61 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 49% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,856 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jiri Vesely goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 180 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 48% 47.2%±7.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 29% 48.3%±9.7 43.7%
BH down the line 16% 53.6%±11.7 46.4%
BH slice through the middle 7% 37.6%±14.1 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 156 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 59% 49.4%±7.8 46.6%
FH through the middle 20% 32.0%±10.7 41.5%
FH down the line 14% 42.7%±12.6 44.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 118 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 52.0%±11.5 52.7%
BH crosscourt 19% 39.1%±12.2 49.1%
BH through the middle 18% 47.2%±12.8 46.8%
BH down the line 17% 54.1%±13.0 48.3%
FH through the middle 10% 45.0%±14.5 47.0%
FH down the line 9% 62.3%±14.3 51.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 101 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 49% 45.5%±9.9 46.9%
BH through the middle 19% 42.6%±13.0 43.0%
BH slice through the middle 12% 32.9%±13.7 32.6%
BH down the line 11% 47.9%±14.8 44.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +4 How much less varied Jiri Vesely's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 55 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 29% ▼ 81% / 73%
Body 14% 21% 72% / 63%
T 47% 50% 71% / 75%

423 normal · 14 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 37% ▼ 74% / 73%
Body 18% 12% 75% / 63%
T 37% 51% ▲ 81% / 72%

350 normal · 41 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide39% 67.4%±5.5 n=170 52% ▲
Body14% 72.7%±7.6 n=62 14%
T47% 58.9%±5.3 n=205 34% ▼

Off equilibrium (p = 0.012): serve body more. Gap 8.5 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 70.1%±5.3 n=172 44%
Body17% 74.2%±7.3 n=68 4% ▼
T39% 73.2%±5.4 n=151 52% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.61).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.60 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.0±6.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (310 repeats, 500 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 46 36% −1.3±9.0
1stAd courtT 128 29% +1.3±6.0
1stAd courtWide 93 22% −5.1±6.2
1stDeuce courtBody 50 35% −1.7±8.8
1stDeuce courtT 104 25% −0.1±6.2
1stDeuce courtWide 133 23% −3.8±5.5
2ndAd courtBody 56 50% +0.4±8.9
2ndAd courtT 50 51% +1.7±9.2
2ndAd courtWide 31 55% +6.6±10.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 87 52% +2.9±7.6
2ndDeuce courtT 25 58% +8.3±10.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 46 51% +2.5±9.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jiri Vesely's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 4.1% · won 75% · −2.3±10.1 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 72% · −4.6±10.0 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 4.1% · won 63% · −14.1±11.1 vs own baseline
  4. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.5% · won 64% · −13.1±10.2 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 11.2% · won 62% · +9.0±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs body serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 7.2% · won 58% · +4.7±11.7 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 7.6% · won 57% · +3.6±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 9.0% · won 53% · −0.6±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, short used 7.9% · won 50% · −3.3±11.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 7.2% · won 61% · +12.5±9.9 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.3% · won 54% · +5.6±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 4.7% · won 52% · +3.6±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 4.3% · won 52% · +3.7±11.6 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 7.8% · won 51% · +2.4±9.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jiri Vesely wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.0% · won 58% · +6.9±12.7 vs own baseline · +19.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Guillermo Garcia Lopez (5/7)
  2. BH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 57% · +5.8±12.9 vs own baseline · +19.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH down the line used 1.4% · won 56% · +4.7±11.8 vs own baseline · +12.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Guillermo Garcia Lopez (6/10)
  4. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 2.5% · won 53% · +2.4±10.1 vs own baseline · +9.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Steve Darcis (3/6), Daniel Gimeno Traver (10/15)
  5. BH crosscourt → FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 0.9% · won 52% · +0.8±13.0 vs own baseline · +5.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH through the middle → FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 48% · −2.8±12.6 vs own baseline · −0.6 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court+1.3172
BH to the middle · return+1.1188
BH to their forehand · rally+0.8197
T 1st serve · ad court+0.5151
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.5170

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally−2.6176
BH to their forehand · rally−2.3141
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−2.1184
FH to their backhand · rally−1.4251
BH to the middle · return−0.8174

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

BH down the line26%
1st serve in65%
Drop shots / shot2.4%
T serves · deuce47%
Point-ending shots25.2%
Points at net12%
Deep returns28%
Chipped returns16%
T serves · ad39%
Serve & volley3%
Unforced errors / shot9.2%
Forehand share51%
Avg rally length3.7
Backhand slice13%
Wide serves · deuce39%
Through the middle21%
Wide serves · ad44%
FH down the line25%
Run-around forehands3%

Plays most like

  1. Martin Klizan 2014–2019 plan v
  2. Benjamin Bonzi 2021–2025 plan v
  3. David Nalbandian 2002–2012 plan v
  4. Denis Istomin 2006–2021 plan v
  5. Learner Tien 2022–2026 plan v
  6. Ugo Humbert 2019–2026 plan v
  7. Nikolay Davydenko 2002–2014 plan v
  8. Kei Nishikori 2011–2025 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Marat Safin 1998–2009
  2. Andrei Pavel 1999–2006
  3. Andre Agassi 1988–2006

Charted matches