Roland Garros · QF · Clay · 3 Jun 2015
Roger Federer v Stan Wawrinka
93–111 in points · Stan Wawrinka won
Why it went the way it did
Stan Wawrinka won 11.4 more points than Roger Federer relative to what the serve alone predicted. Roger Federer's biggest leaks: return execution −8.0, slice shot selection −4.6, forehand execution −2.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Roger Federer | Stan Wawrinka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.7 | −1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.5 | +1.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +1.9 |
| Return | −0.1 | −1.7 | −8.0 | −9.8 | +0.7 | −4.2 | −2.3 | −5.8 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +2.7 | −2.8 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +4.1 | +7.4 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −2.3 | −2.7 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −4.6 | −1.4 | −5.8 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −0.3 | −2.4 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.9 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −1.4 |
| All shots | −0.7 | −2.4 | −13.8 | −16.9 | +1.2 | −4.7 | −2.1 | −5.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Roger Federer | Stan Wawrinka | Net, Roger | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.7 | −1.7 | −3.0 | |
| 2 | −8.9 | −3.0 | −5.9 | |
| 3 | −3.3 | −0.8 | −2.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Roger Federer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 67% | 11% 50% | 50% 53% |
| 2 | 54% 68% | 14% 0% | 31% 64% |
| 3 | 50% 95% | 5% 0% | 45% 65% |
Set to set +1.31 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Stan Wawrinka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 82% | 16% 50% | 55% 62% |
| 2 | 40% 75% | 10% 100% | 50% 80% |
| 3 | 41% 79% | 6% 100% | 53% 89% |
Set to set +1.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Roger Federer
10.5 points left on the table across 326 shots 3.21 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
Stan Wawrinka
8.2 points left on the table across 345 shots 2.38 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts