RallyIQ

Stuttgart · R16 · Grass · 8 Jun 2015

Andreas Haider Maurer v Gael Monfils

75–80 in points · Gael Monfils won

Why it went the way it did

Gael Monfils won 0.0 more points than Andreas Haider Maurer relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andreas Haider Maurer's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.6, serve 1st execution −1.5, serve 2nd execution −1.1.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotAndreas Haider MaurerGael Monfils
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st −0.1 −0.3 −1.5 −1.9 +0.2 +0.1 +2.4 +2.7
Serve 2nd +0.1 −0.1 −1.1 −1.1 ±0.0 +0.1 +0.3 +0.5
Return +0.2 +0.1 −0.5 −0.2 +0.3 +0.6 +2.0 +3.0
Forehand +0.3 +2.1 +1.6 +4.0 +0.2 +1.0 −2.3 −1.2
Backhand −0.4 +0.3 +1.6 +1.5 ±0.0 +1.2 +1.2 +2.3
Slice ±0.0 −2.6 −0.1 −2.7 −0.2 −2.0 ±0.0 −2.2
Net +0.4 +0.2 +2.1 +2.6 −0.3 +0.1 −2.9 −3.1
Touch ±0.0 −0.1 −0.5 −0.6 −0.1 −0.3 −0.5 −0.9
Other −0.1 −0.6 −0.2 −0.8 ±0.0 −0.2 ±0.0 −0.2
All shots +0.4−1.0 +1.4+0.8 ±0.0+0.5 +0.3+0.8

Set by set

SetAndreas Haider MaurerGael MonfilsNet, Andreas
1+1.3−1.0 +2.3
2−0.6+1.8 −2.4

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Andreas Haider Maurer serving

SetWideBodyT
1 36% 92% 19% 86% 44% 69%
2 53% 67% 3% 0% 44% 73%

Set to set −2.59 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −2.17 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Gael Monfils serving

SetWideBodyT
1 49% 82% 9% 100% 43% 60%
2 34% 73% – 66% 76%

Set to set −3.54 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −1.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Andreas Haider Maurer

5.1 points left on the table across 193 shots 2.64 per 100 shots

  1. Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
  3. Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.16 pts

Gael Monfils

6.5 points left on the table across 195 shots 3.34 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
  2. Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
  4. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts