RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2015–2017

Andreas Haider Maurer

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.4% ±3.7 raw 62.4% · tour 63.4% · 359 points
Return points won 34.1% ±3.6 raw 31.0% · tour 36.6% · 361 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Andreas Haider Maurer goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 90 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 27% 44.1%±12.3 47.0%
FH down the line 23% 51.9%±12.8 51.5%
BH through the middle 22% 40.9%±12.8 46.8%
FH crosscourt 16% 45.7%±14.1 52.7%
BH crosscourt 12% 51.0%±14.8 49.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 65 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 45% 48.0%±11.7 47.6%
BH through the middle 43% 41.1%±11.7 43.7%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 57 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 37% 48.0%±12.8 53.4%
FH through the middle 21% 48.3%±14.5 47.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 55 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 40% 29.3%±11.6 41.5%
FH crosscourt 29% 42.5%±13.6 46.6%
FH down the line 18% 39.8%±14.7 44.7%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 20% ▼ 70% / 73%
Body 13% 40% ▲ 62% / 63%
T 42% 40% 75% / 75%

173 normal · 10 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 32% ▼ 79% / 73%
Body 12% 23% ▲ 73% / 63%
T 48% 45% 66% / 72%

147 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide43% 59.0%±7.7 n=79
Body15% 57.5%±10.8 n=27
T42% 64.0%±7.6 n=77

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.49).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide39% 61.0%±8.2 n=66
Body14% 71.9%±10.2 n=23
T47% 61.2%±7.6 n=80

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.10).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 9 36% −0.8±12.7
1stAd courtT 62 28% −0.4±7.7
1stAd courtWide 44 29% +1.4±8.6
1stDeuce courtBody 8 37% +0.2±12.9
1stDeuce courtT 47 27% +1.6±8.3
1stDeuce courtWide 46 21% −5.9±7.7
2ndAd courtBody 23 49% −0.7±11.3
2ndAd courtT 5 51% +1.5±13.9
2ndAd courtWide 27 45% −3.6±10.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 29 44% −5.4±10.6
2ndDeuce courtT 35 44% −5.2±10.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 16 42% −5.9±12.0

Charted matches