Nottingham · R16 · Grass · 24 Jun 2015
Marcos Baghdatis v Alexander Zverev
61–37 in points · Marcos Baghdatis won
Why it went the way it did
Marcos Baghdatis won 12.1 more points than Alexander Zverev relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Zverev's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.5, slice execution −1.0, slice shot selection −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marcos Baghdatis | Alexander Zverev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.6 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.8 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +2.4 | +2.3 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.5 | +2.6 | +2.8 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −3.5 | −2.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +2.0 | +1.9 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.6 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.7 | +0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.0 | −1.8 |
| Net | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.8 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +1.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.6 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +0.4 | +8.4 | +9.0 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −2.2 | −3.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Marcos Baghdatis | Alexander Zverev | Net, Marcos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.6 | −0.7 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | +4.4 | −2.3 | +6.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marcos Baghdatis serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 82% | 20% 80% | 36% 78% |
| 2 | 58% 91% | 16% 33% | 26% 100% |
Within sets +0.80 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexander Zverev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 69% | 21% 67% | 32% 44% |
| 2 | 18% 100% | 32% 43% | 50% 45% |
Within sets −0.42 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marcos Baghdatis
3.3 points left on the table across 138 shots 2.36 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Alexander Zverev
3.3 points left on the table across 148 shots 2.21 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts