RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 25 charted matches · 2004–2019

Marcos Baghdatis

Archetype: Ad-court T server · Two-fisted driver

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.1% ±2.8 raw 62.0% · tour 63.4% · 2,328 points
Return points won 38.6% ±2.9 raw 35.4% · tour 36.6% · 2,365 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.06 ±0.08 better than 73% of ATP · raw +0.06
Shot selection +0.03 ±0.14 better than 56% of ATP · raw +0.03
Execution +0.25 ±0.57 better than 78% of ATP · raw +0.14
Tactical adaptability +0.06 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 24 matches
Adaptation speed +0.15 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.25 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 89% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 12,620 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Marcos Baghdatis goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 879 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 42% 43.7%±4.1 47.6%
BH through the middle 23% 44.5%±5.5 43.7%
BH down the line 15% 39.9%±6.6 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 10% 43.7%±8.0 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 34.5%±10.0 35.1%
BH slice down the line 3% 44.4%±12.1 37.1%
FH inside-in 1% 61.1%±14.4 54.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 717 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 54% 45.7%±4.1 46.6%
FH down the line 24% 41.1%±5.9 44.7%
FH through the middle 19% 38.3%±6.4 41.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 513 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 41% 45.9%±5.4 48.0%
BH through the middle 22% 40.0%±7.0 43.8%
BH down the line 18% 48.9%±7.8 46.5%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 39.3%±10.6 42.1%
BH slice through the middle 6% 23.1%±9.6 35.1%
BH slice down the line 4% 35.4%±12.4 35.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 500 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 27% 60.2%±6.5 51.5%
FH crosscourt 18% 44.1%±7.8 52.7%
FH through the middle 14% 46.1%±8.5 47.0%
BH through the middle 13% 42.3%±8.8 46.8%
BH crosscourt 12% 51.1%±9.3 49.1%
BH down the line 10% 53.7%±9.7 48.3%
FH down the line + approach 2% 72.2%±13.0 70.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Marcos Baghdatis's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 196 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 52% ▲ 70% / 73%
Body 4% 0% 56% / 63%
T 52% 48% 79% / 75%

1,150 normal · 50 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 47% 77% / 73%
Body 4% 5% 54% / 63%
T 49% 48% 72% / 72%

961 normal · 146 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide44% 63.9%±3.3 n=530 57% ▲
Body4% 53.5%±9.6 n=43 0% ▼
T52% 63.9%±3.1 n=627 43% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.68).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 61.8%±3.4 n=518 60% ▲
Body5% 52.7%±9.2 n=50 0% ▼
T49% 59.7%±3.4 n=539 40% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.27).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.28 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.2±2.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (1,221 repeats, 1,036 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 58 39% +1.8±8.5
1stAd courtT 299 28% +0.1±4.1
1stAd courtWide 331 29% +1.3±3.9
1stDeuce courtBody 66 34% −2.3±8.0
1stDeuce courtT 350 25% −0.5±3.6
1stDeuce courtWide 357 32% +4.6±3.9
2ndAd courtBody 158 48% −1.6±6.0
2ndAd courtT 70 48% −1.5±8.2
2ndAd courtWide 208 45% −3.6±5.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 210 43% −6.2±5.3
2ndDeuce courtT 175 54% +4.4±5.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 65 44% −4.5±8.4

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Marcos Baghdatis's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 61% · −4.4±8.7 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 2.5% · won 58% · −6.7±9.1 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 57% · −7.9±8.8 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.2% · won 55% · −9.6±8.4 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.3% · won 52% · −13.0±9.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 3.6% · won 49% · +10.8±8.6 vs own baseline
  2. vs body serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 2.2% · won 51% · +13.4±10.0 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 5.4% · won 44% · +6.5±7.3 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH down the line, mid used 2.4% · won 48% · +9.7±9.8 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, deep used 2.5% · won 47% · +9.1±9.7 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 55% · +9.3±7.4 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.2% · won 52% · +6.7±6.6 vs own baseline
  3. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 4.3% · won 49% · +3.4±6.5 vs own baseline
  4. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 49% · +3.8±7.8 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 3.5% · won 49% · +3.2±7.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Marcos Baghdatis wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 58% · +11.0±10.5 vs own baseline · +17.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Rafael Nadal (14/21), Yoshihito Nishioka (9/13)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.6% · won 56% · +8.7±10.0 vs own baseline · +9.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (6/9)
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.3% · won 58% · +10.6±12.4 vs own baseline · +23.7 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.4% · won 54% · +7.3±11.3 vs own baseline · +7.7 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt → BH down the line used 0.3% · won 55% · +7.8±11.9 vs own baseline · +11.0 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH down the line → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.2% · won 55% · +8.5±12.8 vs own baseline · +14.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · return+2.5309
BH to their backhand · return+2.4323
FH slice to the middle · return+1.9144
BH to their forehand · return+1.6188
FH to their forehand · serve +1+1.6284

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · return−2.7190
BH to their forehand · serve +1−2.4128
BH to the middle · serve +1−2.0145
BH slice to their backhand · rally−1.9243
BH slice to the middle · return−1.7128

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Miomir Kecmanovic, Andy Murray, Joao Fonseca, Bernard Tomic, Albert Ramos

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

T serves · ad49%
T serves · deuce52%
Avg rally length4.4
BH down the line23%
Drop shots / shot2.0%
Chipped returns18%
Wide serves · deuce44%
Through the middle24%
Deep returns26%
FH down the line30%
Backhand slice17%
Serve & volley2%
Points at net9%
Wide serves · ad47%
Forehand share50%
Run-around forehands12%
Point-ending shots20.1%
Unforced errors / shot8.4%
1st serve in55%

Plays most like

  1. Andy Murray 2005–2024 plan v
  2. Jack Draper 2022–2026 plan v
  3. Richard Gasquet 2002–2025 plan v
  4. Janko Tipsarevic 2007–2019 plan v
  5. Andreas Seppi 2008–2021 plan v
  6. David Nalbandian 2002–2012 plan v
  7. Frances Tiafoe 2016–2026 plan v
  8. Marat Safin 1998–2009 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Michael Chang 1989–1998
  2. Aaron Krickstein 1989–1995
  3. Ivan Lendl 1979–1994

Charted matches