Bastad · F · Clay · 26 Jul 2015
Tommy Robredo v Benoit Paire
74–84 in points · Benoit Paire won
Why it went the way it did
Benoit Paire won 6.7 more points than Tommy Robredo relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tommy Robredo's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.9, forehand execution −3.0, return execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tommy Robredo | Benoit Paire | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −2.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +0.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.3 | −2.4 | −3.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −2.0 | −1.7 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +3.1 | −3.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 | +1.7 | −1.5 | −0.3 |
| Backhand | −0.6 | −0.2 | +1.4 | +0.6 | +0.3 | −2.4 | +1.5 | −0.6 |
| Slice | −0.5 | −3.9 | −0.6 | −5.0 | −0.2 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −1.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.4 | +1.1 | +1.7 | +0.1 | +2.5 | +0.8 | +3.5 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −2.1 | +0.3 | −2.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −1.4 | −1.2 |
| All shots | −3.6 | −3.0 | −3.1 | −9.7 | −0.4 | +0.6 | −3.3 | −3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Tommy Robredo | Benoit Paire | Net, Tommy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.8 | −5.1 | −0.6 | |
| 2 | −3.9 | +2.2 | −6.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tommy Robredo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 69% | 59% 66% | 14% 71% |
| 2 | 32% 75% | 32% 50% | 35% 54% |
Set to set +0.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Benoit Paire serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 68% | 19% 78% | 35% 65% |
| 2 | 50% 83% | 21% 80% | 29% 86% |
Set to set −0.69 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.64 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tommy Robredo
11.9 points left on the table across 323 shots 3.67 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×10; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.80 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH down the line rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH lob through the middle ×5; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
Benoit Paire
9.2 points left on the table across 349 shots 2.63 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts