Washington · R32 · Hard · 5 Aug 2015
Steve Johnson v Bernard Tomic
113–100 in points · Steve Johnson won
Why it went the way it did
Steve Johnson won 12.4 more points than Bernard Tomic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Bernard Tomic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.9, forehand execution −4.8, return execution −3.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Steve Johnson | Bernard Tomic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | −0.1 | +3.0 | +2.7 | −0.4 | −0.2 | +2.0 | +1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Return | +0.6 | −1.7 | +1.5 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −3.0 | −2.5 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +2.2 | +2.0 | +3.9 | +0.7 | +1.0 | −4.8 | −3.0 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 | −1.2 | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| Slice | +1.2 | −6.8 | +0.1 | −5.5 | +0.2 | −4.9 | −2.4 | −7.1 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.8 | −0.8 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | +1.2 | −5.7 | +5.8 | +1.3 | +0.9 | −4.4 | −7.5 | −11.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Steve Johnson | Bernard Tomic | Net, Steve | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.7 | −0.9 | −0.8 | |
| 2 | −1.3 | −3.3 | +2.0 | |
| 3 | +4.4 | −6.8 | +11.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Steve Johnson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 74% | 7% 67% | 46% 68% |
| 2 | 33% 67% | 22% 83% | 44% 83% |
| 3 | 22% 50% | 28% 100% | 50% 100% |
Set to set −0.67 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Bernard Tomic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 76% | 13% 83% | 50% 65% |
| 2 | 48% 54% | 22% 67% | 30% 100% |
| 3 | 44% 54% | 13% 14% | 43% 61% |
Set to set −0.83 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Steve Johnson
8.6 points left on the table across 345 shots 2.48 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
Bernard Tomic
6.9 points left on the table across 321 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×6; BH down the line rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH down the line ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts