RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 21 charted matches · 2015–2022

Steve Johnson

Archetype: High-risk · Runs around the backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.1% ±2.7 raw 64.0% · tour 63.4% · 1,749 points
Return points won 34.2% ±2.8 raw 29.9% · tour 36.6% · 1,721 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.20 ±0.08 better than 95% of ATP · raw +0.20
Shot selection −1.01 ±0.24 better than 2% of ATP · raw −1.01
Execution −1.39 ±0.57 better than 13% of ATP · raw −1.40
Tactical adaptability −0.05 first serves toward what's working, set to set · 19 matches
Adaptation speed +0.07 same, every two to three service games · per 100 first serves
Points left on the table 2.71 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 39% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 7,676 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Steve Johnson goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 427 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 46% 37.3%±5.4 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 12% 40.6%±9.7 35.1%
FH inside-in 9% 49.9%±10.6 54.7%
BH slice down the line 7% 38.1%±11.2 37.1%
FH inside-out 6% 46.5%±12.1 51.8%
BH through the middle 5% 37.5%±12.3 43.7%
BH down the line 5% 39.7%±12.6 46.4%
BH crosscourt 5% 51.3%±13.0 47.6%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 271 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 52% 43.7%±6.5 40.9%
BH slice through the middle 19% 37.0%±9.6 32.6%
BH slice down the line 6% 36.9%±13.1 33.3%
FH inside-out 6% 50.9%±13.7 51.7%
BH through the middle 5% 37.1%±13.6 43.0%
BH crosscourt 5% 46.6%±14.3 46.9%
BH down the line 4% 41.4%±14.6 44.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 270 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 40% 38.3%±7.1 46.6%
FH down the line 37% 41.8%±7.5 44.7%
FH through the middle 13% 42.4%±11.0 41.5%
FH slice through the middle 7% 17.7%±10.1 24.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 225 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 32% 44.4%±8.5 51.5%
FH crosscourt 26% 57.1%±9.2 52.7%
FH through the middle 14% 45.9%±11.5 47.0%
BH slice crosscourt 8% 44.3%±13.4 47.0%
BH slice through the middle 5% 40.5%±14.3 44.8%
BH slice down the line 5% 42.3%±14.6 45.6%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +6 How much less varied Steve Johnson's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 132 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 48% 70% / 73%
Body 10% 6% 66% / 63%
T 45% 45% 77% / 75%

879 normal · 31 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 62% 75% / 73%
Body 11% 11% 67% / 63%
T 35% 27% ▼ 70% / 72%

731 normal · 101 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 64.9%±3.7 n=409 58% ▲
Body10% 62.9%±7.2 n=93 0% ▼
T45% 62.8%±3.8 n=408 42% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.76).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide56% 63.6%±3.6 n=462 53% ▼
Body11% 64.5%±7.2 n=89 0% ▼
T34% 64.7%±4.5 n=281 47% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.94).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.43 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +2.4±3.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (712 repeats, 988 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 58 36% −0.5±8.4
1stAd courtT 224 18% −9.8±4.0
1stAd courtWide 229 21% −6.7±4.1
1stDeuce courtBody 70 28% −8.7±7.4
1stDeuce courtT 267 21% −4.0±3.9
1stDeuce courtWide 248 23% −4.5±4.1
2ndAd courtBody 99 49% −0.7±7.2
2ndAd courtT 46 43% −6.1±9.3
2ndAd courtWide 154 44% −4.1±6.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 116 48% −0.6±6.8
2ndDeuce courtT 140 47% −2.7±6.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 62 45% −3.1±8.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Steve Johnson's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 3.2% · won 68% · −0.4±8.8 vs own baseline
  2. T serve (ad court) → FH down the line used 2.5% · won 67% · −1.7±9.6 vs own baseline
  3. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 2.1% · won 64% · −5.1±10.3 vs own baseline
  4. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 4.2% · won 64% · −5.2±8.3 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 62% · −6.6±8.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt, deep used 3.4% · won 44% · +13.7±10.8 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice through the middle, mid used 2.6% · won 37% · +7.1±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH slice crosscourt used 2.8% · won 31% · +0.6±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle used 3.9% · won 28% · −2.3±9.5 vs own baseline
  5. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH slice crosscourt used 3.9% · won 28% · −2.3±9.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH slice crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 13.0% · won 44% · +4.1±6.8 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.3% · won 46% · +5.9±10.3 vs own baseline
  3. FH down the line → FH crosscourt used 3.0% · won 47% · +7.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  4. BH slice through the middle → BH slice crosscourt used 3.7% · won 46% · +5.6±10.7 vs own baseline
  5. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 7.0% · won 43% · +2.7±8.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Steve Johnson wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH down the line → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 55% · +11.4±11.7 vs own baseline · +12.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jannik Sinner (6/9), Gilles Simon (6/7)
  2. Wide serve → BH through the middle return, mid → FH crosscourt used 0.5% · won 54% · +11.0±12.7 vs own baseline · +11.8 vs tour on the same sequence
  3. FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-in used 0.6% · won 50% · +6.2±12.4 vs own baseline · +2.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jannik Sinner (4/6)
  4. BH slice through the middle → FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt used 0.6% · won 49% · +5.1±12.3 vs own baseline · +11.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  5. BH slice down the line → FH down the line → BH slice crosscourt used 0.5% · won 47% · +3.7±13.0 vs own baseline · +7.1 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle → FH down the line used 0.9% · won 46% · +2.4±11.4 vs own baseline · −4.9 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · serve +1+1.7290
BH slice to their backhand · return+1.6183
T 2nd serve · deuce court+1.1159
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+1.0409
BH slice to their backhand · return +1+0.3179

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · ad court−2.7334
FH to their backhand · return−2.7125
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.8440
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.7362
FH to the middle · return−1.5269

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Reilly Opelka, Milos Raonic, Nick Kyrgios, Nicolas Jarry, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Backhand slice76%
BH down the line34%
Chipped returns36%
Run-around forehands36%
Forehand share58%
Unforced errors / shot11.8%
Wide serves · ad56%
Point-ending shots26.8%
FH down the line32%
Deep returns29%
Wide serves · deuce45%
Drop shots / shot1.6%
T serves · deuce45%
1st serve in60%
Serve & volley2%
Points at net8%
T serves · ad34%
Avg rally length3.4
Through the middle20%

Plays most like

  1. Fernando Gonzalez 2000–2010 plan v
  2. Jeremy Chardy 2013–2023 plan v
  3. Grigor Dimitrov 2009–2026 plan v
  4. Milos Raonic 2011–2024 plan v
  5. Tim Van Rijthoven 2021–2023 plan v
  6. Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2007–2022 plan v
  7. Dominic Thiem 2011–2024 plan v
  8. Alexei Popyrin 2019–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Carlos Moya 1997–2007
  2. Tim Henman 1995–2006
  3. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005

Charted matches