St Petersburg · R16 · Hard · 23 Sep 2015
Andreas Haider Maurer v Dominic Thiem
56–74 in points · Dominic Thiem won
Why it went the way it did
Dominic Thiem won 11.0 more points than Andreas Haider Maurer relative to what the serve alone predicted. Andreas Haider Maurer's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.8, serve 1st execution −2.5, backhand execution −2.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Andreas Haider Maurer | Dominic Thiem | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.6 | −0.1 | −2.5 | −3.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.4 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −3.3 | −3.7 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.5 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | +1.4 | −1.6 | −0.7 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.4 | −2.3 | −2.9 | −0.2 | +0.1 | +2.2 | +2.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −3.8 | −0.1 | −3.9 | −0.3 | −2.1 | +0.1 | −2.2 |
| Net | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.6 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +2.5 | +3.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +1.3 | +0.9 |
| All shots | −1.7 | −3.3 | −5.8 | −10.8 | −0.7 | −0.8 | +1.7 | +0.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Andreas Haider Maurer | Dominic Thiem | Net, Andreas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.7 | −1.0 | −5.7 | |
| 2 | −4.1 | +1.2 | −5.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Andreas Haider Maurer serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 45% | 32% 43% | 18% 75% |
| 2 | 34% 47% | 22% 82% | 44% 55% |
Within sets −0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dominic Thiem serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 67% | – | 50% 83% |
| 2 | 50% 59% | – | 50% 82% |
Within sets +0.24 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Andreas Haider Maurer
6.3 points left on the table across 232 shots 2.72 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Dominic Thiem
6.8 points left on the table across 250 shots 2.73 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts