Ho Chi Minh City CH · R16 · Hard · 14 Oct 2015
James Duckworth v Sanam Singh
57–28 in points · James Duckworth won
Why it went the way it did
James Duckworth won 15.8 more points than Sanam Singh relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sanam Singh's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.2, forehand execution −2.7, serve 1st execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | James Duckworth | Sanam Singh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −2.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Return | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −2.2 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.5 | +1.2 | +2.9 | +0.2 | +1.0 | −2.7 | −1.4 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.5 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −4.2 | −4.4 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.6 | −0.6 | −2.4 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −0.5 | −1.6 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +1.5 | +1.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.3 | −1.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.6 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +0.7 | +1.2 | +1.5 | −0.6 | −0.4 | −13.2 | −14.3 |
Set by set
| Set | James Duckworth | Sanam Singh | Net, James | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.9 | −9.8 | +8.9 | |
| 2 | +2.5 | −4.4 | +6.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
James Duckworth serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 88% | 22% 100% | 33% 83% |
| 2 | 35% 71% | 10% 100% | 55% 82% |
Within sets +1.70 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sanam Singh serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 38% | 19% 25% | 43% 56% |
| 2 | 38% 40% | 8% 50% | 54% 57% |
Within sets −0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
James Duckworth
3.1 points left on the table across 113 shots 2.78 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.15 pts
Sanam Singh
3.4 points left on the table across 115 shots 2.94 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.15 pts