RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 10 charted matches · 2014–2026

James Duckworth

Archetype: Rallies through the middle · Crosscourt backhand

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.6% ±3.5 raw 62.4% · tour 63.4% · 757 points
Return points won 32.6% ±3.5 raw 25.4% · tour 36.6% · 672 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.02 ±0.24 better than 61% of ATP · raw +0.01
Shot selection +0.05 ±0.32 better than 60% of ATP · raw +0.05
Execution −1.28 ±1.00 better than 16% of ATP · raw −1.34
Points left on the table 2.74 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 37% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,217 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points James Duckworth goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 135 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 29% 39.9%±10.5 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 29% 44.9%±10.7 42.5%
BH slice through the middle 15% 35.1%±12.4 35.1%
BH through the middle 14% 35.2%±12.6 43.7%
BH down the line 7% 37.6%±14.5 46.4%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 104 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 30% 28.3%±10.4 42.1%
BH crosscourt 29% 35.2%±11.1 48.0%
BH slice through the middle 15% 33.4%±12.9 35.1%
BH through the middle 12% 39.9%±14.2 43.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 97 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 24% 45.4%±12.5 52.7%
FH down the line 20% 46.9%±13.1 51.5%
FH through the middle 14% 42.4%±13.9 47.0%
BH through the middle 14% 39.3%±13.8 46.8%
BH crosscourt 12% 49.5%±14.5 49.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 90 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 40.6%±10.9 46.6%
FH through the middle 23% 34.9%±12.2 41.5%
FH down the line 21% 35.8%±12.6 44.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +13 How much less varied James Duckworth's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 78 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 50% 72% / 73%
Body 7% 0% 70% / 63%
T 47% 50% 82% / 75%

372 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 50% 71% / 73%
Body 5% 2% 56% / 63%
T 43% 48% 70% / 72%

306 normal · 56 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 61.6%±5.5 n=183 40% ▼
Body6% 61.4%±10.8 n=25 0% ▼
T47% 67.5%±5.2 n=186 60% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.29).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 59.3%±5.5 n=188 43% ▼
Body4% 54.3%±12.2 n=15 0% ▼
T44% 62.8%±5.8 n=159 57% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.65).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.44 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.4±6.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (258 repeats, 478 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 18 29% −7.6±10.8
1stAd courtT 71 18% −9.8±6.3
1stAd courtWide 95 21% −6.3±6.0
1stDeuce courtBody 17 32% −4.8±11.2
1stDeuce courtT 113 14% −11.4±4.7
1stDeuce courtWide 103 17% −10.5±5.3
2ndAd courtBody 48 47% −2.2±9.3
2ndAd courtT 31 42% −7.0±10.4
2ndAd courtWide 52 49% +1.0±9.1
2ndDeuce courtBody 40 40% −9.4±9.6
2ndDeuce courtT 55 47% −2.7±8.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 29 46% −1.6±10.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than James Duckworth's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 61% · −9.0±10.9 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 5.3% · won 59% · −10.8±11.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 15.0% · won 40% · −0.3±11.1 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often James Duckworth wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 44% · +3.0±12.1 vs own baseline · −1.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Hubert Hurkacz (8/12)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH slice crosscourt used 1.0% · won 38% · −2.9±12.7 vs own baseline · −9.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Daniil Medvedev (2/7)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally+1.7139
BH to their backhand · rally+0.6133
Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.3188
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.6183
T 1st serve · deuce court−1.1186

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · deuce court−4.2148
T 1st serve · deuce court−3.0188
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.1177
FH to the middle · return−0.9133
BH to their backhand · rally−0.7152

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nick Kyrgios, Quentin Halys, Nicolas Jarry

Tactical fingerprint

Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.

Backhand slice36%
Deep returns34%
Unforced errors / shot11.9%
T serves · ad44%
Point-ending shots26.8%
Drop shots / shot2.2%
Wide serves · deuce46%
Through the middle26%
T serves · deuce47%
Points at net13%
Wide serves · ad52%
FH down the line31%
Serve & volley6%
Run-around forehands17%
Forehand share51%
Chipped returns11%
Avg rally length3.4
BH down the line13%
1st serve in56%

Plays most like

  1. Rinky Hijikata 2023–2026 plan v
  2. Lucas Pouille 2015–2024 plan v
  3. Jan Lennard Struff 2014–2025 plan v
  4. Pierre Hugues Herbert 2014–2025 plan v
  5. Gregoire Barrere 2016–2024 plan v
  6. Zizou Bergs 2021–2026 plan v
  7. Otto Virtanen 2022–2025 plan v
  8. Sebastian Korda 2021–2026 plan v

Closest from another era

  1. Nicolas Kiefer 1999–2008
  2. Sebastien Grosjean 1999–2005
  3. Marat Safin 1998–2009

Charted matches