Montevideo CH · R32 · Clay · 16 Nov 2015
Dario Acosta v Carlos Berlocq
27–58 in points · Carlos Berlocq won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Berlocq won 17.1 more points than Dario Acosta relative to what the serve alone predicted. Dario Acosta's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.2, slice shot selection −2.4, serve 2nd execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Dario Acosta | Carlos Berlocq | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −1.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.6 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +2.4 | +2.9 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.8 | +0.1 | +2.0 | ±0.0 | +2.1 | +1.2 | +3.4 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | −4.2 | −3.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.4 | −0.8 | −3.2 | −0.1 | −1.5 | +0.1 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.4 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.1 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.3 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −0.5 | −11.0 | −11.2 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +4.9 | +5.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Dario Acosta | Carlos Berlocq | Net, Dario | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.8 | +3.9 | −8.7 | |
| 2 | −6.4 | +2.0 | −8.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Dario Acosta serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 38% | 15% 0% | 35% 44% |
| 2 | 52% 50% | 13% 33% | 35% 13% |
Within sets +0.65 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Berlocq serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 64% | 10% 50% | 35% 86% |
| 2 | 56% 56% | 6% 100% | 38% 100% |
Within sets +0.40 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Dario Acosta
4.1 points left on the table across 174 shots 2.37 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Carlos Berlocq
5.0 points left on the table across 173 shots 2.88 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts