ATP · Right-handed · 9 charted matches · 2011–2019
Carlos Berlocq
Archetype: Grinder · Ad-court T server
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Value per 100 shots
Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,951 shots.
Shot expected value
The share of points Carlos Berlocq goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 368 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 28% | 50.4%±7.4 | 47.6% |
| BH through the middle | 26% | 51.1%±7.7 | 43.7% |
| BH down the line | 13% | 47.5%±10.0 | 46.4% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 8% | 40.2%±11.3 | 42.5% |
| BH slice through the middle | 7% | 37.8%±11.9 | 35.1% |
| FH inside-out | 7% | 54.2%±12.2 | 51.8% |
| FH inside-in | 4% | 54.1%±13.9 | 54.7% |
| BH slice down the line | 3% | 51.4%±15.0 | 37.1% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 206 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 33% | 51.3%±8.8 | 48.0% |
| BH through the middle | 21% | 44.1%±10.3 | 43.8% |
| BH down the line | 16% | 42.9%±11.3 | 46.5% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 9% | 42.1%±13.0 | 42.1% |
| BH slice through the middle | 8% | 27.8%±12.3 | 35.1% |
| FH inside-in | 6% | 55.8%±14.4 | 54.3% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 51% to the average player · 195 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 31% | 51.3%±9.1 | 52.7% |
| FH down the line | 23% | 48.9%±10.3 | 51.5% |
| FH through the middle | 16% | 53.7%±11.5 | 47.0% |
| BH through the middle | 13% | 55.1%±12.1 | 46.8% |
| BH crosscourt | 9% | 40.1%±13.3 | 49.1% |
| FH down the line + approach | 5% | 70.3%±13.7 | 70.5% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 194 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 43% | 43.6%±8.0 | 46.6% |
| FH through the middle | 25% | 43.1%±9.9 | 41.5% |
| FH down the line | 25% | 48.5%±10.0 | 44.7% |
Serve under pressure
Pressure predictability index −5 How much less varied Carlos Berlocq's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 66 break-point first serves.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 40% | 68% / 73% |
| Body | 23% | 33% ▲ | 57% / 63% |
| T | 30% | 27% | 76% / 75% |
304 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 45% | 51% | 70% / 73% |
| Body | 12% | 22% ▲ | 65% / 63% |
| T | 43% | 27% ▼ | 67% / 72% |
247 normal · 51 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 47% | 54.9%±6.1 n=150 | 47% |
| Body | 24% | 54.3%±8.0 n=75 | 10% ▼ |
| T | 29% | 65.6%±7.0 n=94 | 43% ▲ |
Off equilibrium (p = 0.041): serve T more. Gap 7.7 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.1 per 100 first serves.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 46% | 56.6%±6.3 n=138 | 47% |
| Body | 13% | 63.4%±9.5 n=40 | 0% ▼ |
| T | 40% | 58.9%±6.6 n=120 | 53% ▲ |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.43).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.
Exploitability 0.76 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.0±7.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (242 repeats, 357 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 19 | 39% | +2.0±11.5 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 45 | 31% | +3.2±8.8 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 111 | 31% | +3.4±6.4 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 28 | 43% | +6.4±10.7 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 86 | 30% | +4.7±7.0 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 92 | 28% | +0.8±6.7 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 18 | 54% | +4.4±11.8 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 8 | 49% | +0.2±13.3 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 103 | 48% | −0.6±7.1 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 56 | 54% | +5.3±8.8 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 42 | 50% | +0.2±9.7 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 30 | 44% | −4.0±10.5 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Carlos Berlocq's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 9.0% · won 62% · −2.8±9.8 vs own baseline
- Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 5.7% · won 57% · −8.4±11.3 vs own baseline
Return
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 10.2% · won 50% · +5.1±11.1 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 11.9% · won 48% · +3.5±10.6 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 11.1% · won 41% · −3.6±10.7 vs own baseline
- vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, deep used 8.6% · won 40% · −4.7±11.5 vs own baseline
Rally, consecutive own shots
- BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 3.2% · won 56% · +5.9±11.4 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 6.2% · won 53% · +3.0±9.6 vs own baseline
- BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 3.8% · won 53% · +3.7±11.0 vs own baseline
- FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 3.5% · won 53% · +3.9±11.2 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 5.7% · won 52% · +2.4±9.8 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Carlos Berlocq wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 62% · +11.5±12.2 vs own baseline · +24.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Guido Pella (5/7), Alessandro Giannessi (7/7)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.4% · won 53% · +2.5±11.0 vs own baseline · +8.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Nicolas Almagro (3/8), Pablo Carreno Busta (5/10)
- FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.8% · won 51% · +1.0±12.7 vs own baseline · +4.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Guido Pella (2/6), Blaz Rola (3/7)
- BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 0.9% · won 48% · −2.4±12.3 vs own baseline · +1.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Blaz Rola (5/9), Alessandro Giannessi (4/7)
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 48% · −2.8±10.8 vs own baseline · −2.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Pablo Carreno Busta (5/14), Paolo Lorenzi (3/6)
- FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 0.8% · won 46% · −4.8±12.5 vs own baseline · −4.9 vs tour on the same sequence
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| FH to their backhand · rally | +2.3 | 375 |
| BH to their forehand · rally | +2.0 | 121 |
| BH to the middle · rally | +1.5 | 194 |
| BH to their backhand · rally | +1.4 | 209 |
| BH to the middle · return | +1.3 | 152 |
Most exposed to
| BH to the middle · return | −2.3 | 168 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −1.6 | 375 |
| FH to their forehand · serve +1 | −1.5 | 124 |
| FH to their backhand · serve +1 | −1.2 | 160 |
| BH to the middle · rally | −0.6 | 172 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Cameron Norrie, Daniil Medvedev, Dusan Lajovic, Ugo Humbert
Tactical fingerprint
Each bar shows how far a style trait is from the ATP average, in standard deviations.
| Avg rally length | 5.3 | |
| Drop shots / shot | 2.4% | |
| Forehand share | 56% | |
| Run-around forehands | 25% | |
| Wide serves · deuce | 47% | |
| Deep returns | 31% | |
| BH down the line | 22% | |
| Through the middle | 26% | |
| 1st serve in | 63% | |
| T serves · ad | 40% | |
| Backhand slice | 23% | |
| Points at net | 11% | |
| Chipped returns | 14% | |
| FH down the line | 30% | |
| Serve & volley | 1% | |
| Wide serves · ad | 46% | |
| Point-ending shots | 16.2% | |
| Unforced errors / shot | 6.3% | |
| T serves · deuce | 29% |
Plays most like
- Jaume Munar 2018–2026 plan v
- David Ferrer 2003–2019 plan v
- Guillermo Coria 2002–2005 plan v
- Pablo Carreno Busta 2015–2026 plan v
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry 2022–2026 plan v
- Novak Djokovic 2005–2026 plan v
- Miomir Kecmanovic 2019–2026 plan v
- Diego Schwartzman 2015–2025 plan v
Closest from another era
- Jiri Novak 1996–2004
- Aaron Krickstein 1989–1995
- Jonas Svensson 1987–1991
Charted matches
- Carlos Berlocq v Paolo Lorenzi L Biella CH R16 · Clay · 19 Sep 2019
- Guido Pella v Carlos Berlocq L Montevideo CH F · Clay · 11 Nov 2018
- Alessandro Giannessi v Carlos Berlocq L Banja Luka CH F · Clay · 16 Sep 2018
- Blaz Rola v Carlos Berlocq W Panama City CH F · Clay · 8 Apr 2018
- Dario Acosta v Carlos Berlocq W Montevideo CH R32 · Clay · 16 Nov 2015
- Carlos Berlocq v Nicolas Almagro L Casablanca R16 · Clay · 8 Apr 2015
- Carlos Berlocq v Pablo Carreno Busta W Casablanca R32 · Clay · 6 Apr 2015
- Roger Federer v Carlos Berlocq L Rome Masters R32 · Clay · 16 May 2012
- Novak Djokovic v Carlos Berlocq L US Open R64 · Hard · 1 Sep 2011