Andria CH · R32 · Hard · 23 Nov 2015
Adrien Bossel v Dudi Sela
26–52 in points · Dudi Sela won
Why it went the way it did
Dudi Sela won 13.9 more points than Adrien Bossel relative to what the serve alone predicted. Adrien Bossel's biggest leaks: backhand execution −5.2, forehand execution −2.2, touch execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Adrien Bossel | Dudi Sela | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.5 | ±0.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.0 | −2.2 | −1.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +1.4 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.6 | −5.2 | −5.5 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +2.2 | +1.9 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.9 | −1.4 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | −1.8 | −0.6 | −2.4 |
| Net | −0.1 | −0.1 | −1.4 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.2 | −1.9 | −2.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −0.5 | −12.7 | −13.2 | −0.6 | −2.4 | +3.6 | +0.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Adrien Bossel | Dudi Sela | Net, Adrien | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.5 | +1.7 | −8.1 | |
| 2 | −6.7 | −1.0 | −5.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Adrien Bossel serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 56% | 13% 33% | 48% 27% |
| 2 | 42% 50% | – | 58% 45% |
Within sets +2.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dudi Sela serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% 88% | – | 47% 71% |
| 2 | 62% 69% | 10% 100% | 29% 83% |
Within sets −0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Adrien Bossel
3.7 points left on the table across 132 shots 2.80 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
Dudi Sela
3.7 points left on the table across 124 shots 2.96 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts